Remote Monitoring Report

Good rains expected to positively impact the start of the 2014/15 agriculture season

October 2014
2014-Q4-1-2-AO-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  •  Food prices have stabilized in most parts of the country. However, market prices in Namibe continue to decline due to later than normal horticulture production. Increasing food supplies in the Namibe will likely improve access among households that are currently relying on market purchases for their food needs.

  • The majority of the provinces across the country have started receiving agricultural inputs. Households in provinces in the southern part of the country are receiving seeds for corn, beans, millet, and sorghum, and fertilizers to support them as they prepare for the upcoming agricultural season.

  • Although food security is generally stable across much of the country, poor households in the less populous Coastal, Fish, Horticulture, and Non-farm income zone will continue to be Stressed (Phase 2) between October and December. During this same period areas in more populous Southern Livestock zone will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes. During the peak of the lean season (January-March) the dwindling food supplies and reduced income earning possibilities are expected to contribute to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes in the areas of concern.  

 

Zones Current Anomalies Projected Anomalies
Southern Livestock, Millet, Sorghum Unseasonal September rains in some part of this area might change the agricultural planning in terms of the timing of planting, crop choices, and the location of the planting. As a result of early rains, more households might decide to start preparations for the upcoming season early, thereby increasing the size of the area planted and possibly the size of the harvest

 

Projected Outlook Through March 2015

National
  • For the upcoming 2014/15 agricultural season, the Ministry of Agriculture (through Institute of Agricultural Development, [IDA] in Portuguese) has already started distributing inputs to the provinces. In the provinces that do not have storage facilities, these inputs are being distributed as soon as they arrive.
  • The Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-18) forecast indicates that the 2014/15 rains for most of Angola are expected to be normal to above normal. In particular, the southwestern region is expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall during the October-December and January-March periods. There is a high likelihood of normal to below-normal rainfall in the northern region during the January-March period. Overall, this positive forecast for the southwestern areas might also have a positive impact on pasture regeneration and water availability for animals, thus helping households recover their herd sizes.   
Areas of Concern: Southern Livestock, Millet, Sorghum Livelihood zone (parts of Cunene and Namibe Provinces) and Coastal Fishing Horticulture and Non-Farm Income Zone (parts of Benguela and Kwanza-Sul)
  • In Kwanza-Sul the food security situation is showing signs of continued improvement, nonetheless over the next two months the situation will continue to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Poor household access to basic foodstuff is also showing signs of improvement with the inclusion of the areas affected in the province in the PAPAGRO program (implemented by of the Ministry of Commerce). The program sells food at subsidized prices, increasing household access and bringing down rising prices. The start of input distributions to households has briefly reduced the number of people moving from the area of Porto Amboim and relocating to the area of Waku-Kungo and other surrounding areas.
  • In Namibe cattle conditions continue to improve due to improved feeding and water conditions for animals, especially around the city of Namibe and Bibala. The short rains that fell in mid-September have improved pastoralist’s outlook for the rainy season. This more positive outlook for the season has resulted in a reduction in the number of animals culled, subsequently increasing meat prices. Currently the terms of trade for meat is AOA 1,000/kg. Horticultural production of tomatoes, lettuce, and cabbage has also been high. This production is coming mostly from the margins of river Giraúl, Bero, and Lucira.  The province is expecting to receive seeds for corn, beans, and millet, and sorghum in anticipation for the planting season that is expected to start in early November.
  • In Cunene the worsening pasture conditions is proving to be detrimental to the poorest households’ herds. However, at this stage, those households that have not already moved are more likely to stay due to the poor conditions of their animals. It is also likely that the poorest households are almost out of food stocks and are relying on the market for supplies. The province is already receiving seed (beans, corn, millet, and sorghum) and agricultural implements; however, the upcoming agricultural season is only planned to start around the first week of November, with the onset of rains. So far, the province has not received rains yet but the land preparations and seed distribution have already started.

 

 

ABOUT REMOTE MONITORING

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. For more information click here.

About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics