Remote Monitoring Report

Erratic rains experienced at the start of the 2014/15 agriculture season in the south

November 2014
2014-Q4-1-2-AO-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Prices of basic foodstuff in Namibe and Cunene markets are beginning to show a slight decreasing trend. The use of less expensive railway for transportation from rural to urban areas is contributing to these unseasonably low food prices. This is expected to improve food access in these areas given that most households rely of markets to access foodstuff during this period.  

  • As the lean season begins in some areas the Ministry of Social Affairs has restarted food distributions to rural households in Namibe and Cunene Provinces.  

  • Current acute food insecurity outcomes among the majority of households continues to be Minimal (IPC Phase 1). Poor households in areas of concern are able to expand their livelihoods. However, it is estimated that around the end of December onwards households in the Southern Livestock, Millet, and Sorghum livelihood zone will likely be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) once they deplete their food stocks and the peak of the lean season begins from January-March. 

Zone Current Anomalies Projected Anomalies
Southern Livestock, Millet, Sorghum Namibe and Cunene Provinces are experiencing problems with extended transhumance due to insufficient drinking water and pasture for animals due to the poor distribution and intensity of the September rains.  As a result of extended transhumance, almost all pastoralists are yet to return. This is likely to affect the peak labor season negatively because there might be a scarcity of labor for assisting in agricultural activities. 
Southern Livestock, Millet, Sorghum Limited access to land for pasture and water continues to cause overcrowding of transhumance areas.  Animals are already in poor condition due to the long distances traveled. Overcrowded conditions potentially puts herds at risk of diseases. 

 

Projected Outlook Through March 2015

 National

  • In the southwestern parts of the country, high volumes of agricultural and food trade continues in the Chiaco area of Lubango. Normal market stratification based on the source and cost of food continues but at a higher intensity. Poor households are consuming millet, sorghum, corn meal, and leafy vegetables. The place where the food is sourced are also stratified. Small-scale traders operating out of the João de Almeida Market (JAM) source from rural areas in Namibe and very little is acquired from local areas around JAM. Large volume traders source grains and leafy vegetables mostly from Benguela and sometime from Luanda, while some corn meal comes from Namibia.
  • In the central region of the country agricultural produce supply and demand in the city of Huambo is more dynamic given that its location is easily accessible to both Luanda and Benguela. This accessibility is leading to an increase in the volume of trade, increasing the supply of foodstuffs, which is likely contributing to foodstuff price trends that are lower than normal for this time of the year. These lower prices should improve poor household purchasing power.

Areas of Concern: Southern Livestock, Millet, Sorghum Livelihood zone (parts of Cunene and Namibe Provinces) and Coastal Fishing Horticulture and Non-Farm Income Zone (parts of Benguela and Kwanza-Sul)

  • In Kwanza-Sul Province the rains have started and smallholder farmers who have stayed and received some inputs have already started planting. Local Institute of Agriculture Development (IDA) officials are optimistic about the prospects of the season. However, in general it is well known that rainfall performance can change quickly.
  • In Namibe Province, early and mid-September rains eventually stopped and there has not been any rain since then. According to locals this is a normal occurrence and usually rains start in late November, which is much later than they have started in the past. Many who plan to participate in the agricultural season are yet to start planting, due to the lack of moisture. Seeds for corn, beans, sorghum, and millet have already been distributed mostly to local co-ops and some smallholder households (in Namibe, Bibala, and Camucuio city). These households are expected to payback twice the amount they are receiving in seeds with their own production at the end of the season (i.e. 1kg of seeds for 2kg of production).
  • In Cunene Province rains have started, however their intensity and distribution is very irregular. Local authorities are predicting that the rains might start to regularly fall around mid-November. IDA is advising locals not to start planting due to the low and inadequate humidity levels. The current window for the start of the 2014/15 agricultural season is from mid-November up to end of January.
ABOUT REMOTE MONITORING

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. For more information click here.

About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics