Remote Monitoring Report

Late seasonal rains expected to improve the food security situation in Cunene Province

May 2014
2014-Q2-2-1-AO-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Rainfall has been average across most of the country, with localized dryness in parts of the southwestern region. In the more productive areas rainfall was normal-to-above normal. Officially, the rainy season ended on the 15th of May. This year a normal cropping season is expected.

  • Dryness in Kwanza-Sul is improving with ongoing rainfall, but the distribution continues to be irregular. River levels remain low and this could have a negative impact on the nacas season. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to continue through September.

  • Late rainfall in Cunene has allowed more than half of the area planted for sorghum and millet to survive, increasing harvest prospects. Improved moisture availability should make it possible to plant for the upcoming nacas season. With upcoming harvest, improved livestock conditions, and access to the nacas season, acute food insecurity is expected to improve in the coming months and will be Minimal (IPC Phase 1) from July-September.

Zone  Current Anomalies Projected Anomalies
Southern livestock, Millet and sorghum The continued dryness is affecting the ability of pastoralists to return to their homesteads in Namibe province. The extended stay in the transhumance areas is exerting undue pressure on the carrying capacity of these grazing areas, thereby reducing the ability to sustain cattle much longer. The relatively heavy losses in cattle due to death might reduce households’ ability to produce milk, meat, and other related products. 
Coastal fish, horticulture and non-farm income Lack of enough humidity continues to threaten normal activities of the second cropping season. Nacas season will continue to be unviable. 

 

Projected Outlook Through September 2014

National

  • In general the 2013/14 cropping season was good. Most part of the country received around average rainfall and the more productive areas in the in the center and eastern parts of the country received normal to above-normal rains. Production levels this year are expected to better than the 2012/13 production that was affected by drought. Dryness was reported this season in parts of Cunene and Namibe Province. 

Areas of Concern: Southern Livestock, Millet, Sorghum Livelihood zone (parts of Cunene and Namibe Provinces) and Coastal Fishing Horticulture and Non-Farm Income Zone (parts of Benguela and Kwanza-Sul).

  • In Namibe, poor households in those areas that received below average rainfall this season reported that around 75-90 percent of their planted crops failed. There are still problems with water sources for irrigation, which is limiting the success rate of the pilot irrigation program being implemented by the Ministry of Agriculture (MINAGRI). Additionally, due to absence of pastures and drinking water for cattle, most pastoralists are postponing their return to their homesteads, preferring instead to stay in the transhumance areas. This is situation is exceeding the carrying capacity of these areas and making them dangerously overgrazed. Additionally, prospects for planting for the upcoming nacas season are low due to the lack of moisture. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist in these areas for the remainder of the outlook period. 
  • The cropping situation has improved in Cunene due to late season rains. Approximately 50 percent of the crops planted received enough rain to be harvested. Improved moisture availability should make it possible to plant for the upcoming nacas season. With upcoming harvest, improved livestock conditions, and access to the nacas season, acute food insecurity is expected to improve in the coming months and will be Minimal (IPC Phase 1) from July-September.
  • Poor households around the cities of Porto Amboim and Sumbe normally depend on the 2nd/nacas agricultural season for the provision of cereals and horticultural produce to smooth consumption. Given that rainfall was not very satisfactory in terms of magnitude and distribution in the months of March, April and May, it is expected that these households will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes for the remainder of the outlook period. 
About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices.

About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics