Remote Monitoring Report

Improved rainfall could restore pastoralist patterns in the south

March 2014
2014-Q1-1-1-AO-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In February rainfall continued to improve in parts of eastern and northern Namibe, southern Huila and northeastern Cunene Provinces.

  • Although pastoralists are yet to return to their homesteads, overall out migration has decreased. Continued improvements in rainfall could improve pasture conditions and may result in more households returning to their homesteads in the coming months. If this occurs, household food insecurity could improve through livestock production and sales.

  • For poor households in Kwanza Sul, Namibe, and Cunene Provinces, government food assistance and supplies from neighboring Huila Province are their main sources of food. These provinces are expected to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes through June.

Zone Current Anomalies Projected Anomalies
Southern livestock, Millet and sorghum
  • Pastoralists are still moving out of their areas of origin. This is especially so in the areas of Virei and Tombwa in Namibe Province and Curoca in Cunene Province.
  • Significantly lower amounts of area planted are expected around homesteads where pastoralist households migrated from. Lower area planted during the main season is expected to reduce the availability of staple cereal after the upcoming harvest.
Coastal fish, horticulture and non-farm income
  • Lack of rainfall is forcing poor rural households living around Porto Amboim, in Kwanza Sul Province, to move towards the city.
  • The food security situation in Porto Amboim is expected to be complicated by this sudden migration of poor households into the city.

 

Projected Outlook Through June 2014

National

  • The government has increased the rate of acquisition of produce (mostly maize, tomatoes, beans and sorghum and millet) in the south under the Ministry of Commerce’s Acquisition of Agricultural Products program (PAPAGRO). PAPAGRO is intended to work as a semi-formal agricultural marketing board. Besides the usual functions, PAPAGRO provides subsidies to both producers and consumer. This program should immediately help to increase beans and maize prices for suppliers, while decreasing consumer prices. The surplus supplies from this program are intended to be used for strategic reserves and future price control of the food basket for an average household.
  • Despite overall improvements in rainfall patterns in much of the country, patterns in Porto Amboim have been deteriorating since January, forcing some poor households to abandon their small cultivated plots and seek refuge elsewhere. This movement is particularly notable in rural areas surrounding Porto Amboim. This migration of rural poor households into the city complicates the food security situation in the city and introduces further complications in distributing food assistance.
  • Porto Amboimis located in livelihood zone 1, an arid and semi-arid coastal area that receives on average around 75 mm of rainfall per year. Poor people in this area rely more on small livestock and fishing equipment as productive assets; and the poor consume mostly cassava, vegetables and fish. It is projected that the continued movement of poor households from the rural area might further complicate the food security situation in nearby cities.

Area of Concern: The Southern Livestock, Millet, Sorghum Livelihood zone

  • There have been improvements in rainfall in areas surrounding Virei in Namibe Province. Though rain is still very erratic and falling in low volumes, this might help re-establish normal transhumant patterns. Some households have started to return to their homesteads. This rainfall, though late, has lessened the number of households moving and reduced the distance traveled.
  • The food security situation continues to improve. However, the poor 2013 Nacas (flood recession) season and lower than expected 2013/14 main cereal harvest expected from May-June complicates the food access situation further. When transhumant households return, locally available food supplies are expected to be limited. Thus, it is expected that households in zone 1 of Kwanza Sul Province and in zone 3 of Namibe and Cunene Provinces will continue facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food security through June.

About Remote Monitoring
In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work at www.fews.net/our-work/our-work/scenario-development.

About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics