Crisis (IPC Phase 3) likely to persist amid high prices and drought

• An estimated 1.0 to 1.5 million people in Angola will likely need humanitarian food assistance by January 2025, primarily in south and east Angola, which have experienced repeated droughts, particularly in the provinces of Cunene, Cuando Cubango, Moxico, and parts of Namibe and Huila. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely in these areas.
• Many households in the rest of the country will likely experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through January 2025 due to more favorable rainfall driving relatively better harvest prospects and labor opportunities from land preparation, weeding, and planting.
• The start of the 2024/25 rainy season in October will likely increase agricultural labor opportunities, providing income and improved purchasing capacity for some poor households. Other households will start incurring expenses associated with the agricultural season such as purchasing seeds, equipment, fertilizers, and other needed inputs for the season.  
• Successive shocks include drought and high inflation, with prices of staple foods and other goods increasing due to currency devaluation and reduced fuel subsidies.
• In the southeast, poor households primarily depend on food from own-production and some fishing, supplemented with market purchases of maize, rice, dry fish, and cooking oil. Poor households are expected to generate income for food purchases by selling natural products (charcoal, firewood, sand, and stones) and locally made alcoholic beverages. 

 National

• Rainfall shortages during the key crop maturation periods in the southern and eastern parts of country have been reported. Cuando Cubango and southern Moxico have received cumulative rainfall of 60 to 75 percent of the 40-year average, and Cunene, Huila, Bie, and much of Moxico have received 75 to 90 percent of the 40-year average (Figure 2).
• Below-normal rainfall and harvests, compounded by a lack of recovery in household assets from recent droughts, are resulting in reducedagricultural labor opportunities.
• Food prices remain high and have contributed to the high inflation rates negatively impacting household purchasing capacity. In June, national consumer price inflation increased to 31.0 percent year-on-year (but 43 percent in Luanda), reaching the highest level since May 2017. However, the monthly inflation rate has been slowing in recent months (Figures 3 and 4).
• In June 2023, the government increased the size of the Kwenda cash transfers paid through the Social Support Fund (FAS). Transfers reach about 10 to 15 percent of households nationally, but the coverage rate is significantly higher in the targeted poor, rural areas. Beneficiary families receive 66,000 Angolan kwanza (AOA) (80 USD) every six months.

Southern and Eastern Angola

• Below-average crop prospects in southern Huila and some parts of Huambo and Bié are expected to reduce labor opportunities for poor members of agropastoral households in Cunene and Namibe who typically migrate for labor opportunities.
• The below-average harvest will likely negatively impact the volume of staple food supplies that flow from Huila to Namibe and Cunene this year.
• Food inflation rates remained relatively high in the southern provinces of Cunene and Huila during the harvest period from April to June.
• Livestock pasturing opportunities in Namibia are limited due to very low 2023/24 rainfall, which has limited grazing land.

Humanitarian Food Assistance

• The WFP, in coordination with the National Civil Protection Commission and other partners, distributes commodity vouchers to support the households worst impacted by drought in the south.

National Assumptions

• Average to above-average rainfall is expected for the 2024/25 main cropping season, beginning in October.
• In the second half of 2024, food prices are expected to be above average and are projected to further increase throughout the outlook period, though at a slower rate than the first half of 2024.
• Households in southeastern provinces will deplete food stocks atypically early due to the below-average 2023/24 harvest and face limited income-generating opportunities. 
• The World Bank expects poverty rates to increase to 36.1 percent for the first time since 2014, which amounts to almost 13.5 million Angolans living on less than 2.15 USD/day.
• The increasing inflation rate is expected to stabilize in the second half of 2024, but easing of the national monetary policy is not anticipated before mid-2025. This will weigh on household borrowing for consumption purposes, particularly since the inflation rate is well above the five-year average of 15 percent. The National Bank of Angola is expected to let the AOA weaken slightly.
• The adjusted minimum wage in Angola of 70,000 AOA per month will, according to the presidential decree, be increased again in a year to 100,000 AOA (or 110 USD). The government will also increase the old-age pension and other social transfers by 25 percent. These adjustments will improve some households’ purchasing capacity for food and non-food needs.

Southern and Eastern Angola

• Most poor households in the region have below-average own-produced crops and will rely on food purchases from the markets atypically early.
• Below-average crop prospects in southern Huila and some parts of Huambo and Bie are expected to reduce labor opportunities for poor household members from Cunene and Namibe who normally migrate for agricultural labor opportunities.
• Due to drought-related declines in pasture availability and quality, pastoralists will likely travel longer distances in search of grazing areas, leading to further deterioration in livestock body conditions. 
• Limited saved seed stocks from the below-average 2023/24 harvest mean fewer households have sufficient seeds for planting at the beginning of the 2024/25 agricultural season.
• Households in some areas are participating in second season or nacas planting activities, though the southeast remains affected by below-average soil moisture conditions and has limited access to inputs, which will hinder nacas planting and harvests during the outlook period. 

Humanitarian Food Assistance

In response to the El Niño event in 2024, WFP plans to continue providing vouchers to food-insecure households, prioritizing those with malnourished children.

WFP plans to restart an emergency school meals program to support primary school children and their families in southern Angola. The program has two components which include hot meals and take-home rations, depending on the school's infrastructure. By sourcing the WFP food from local farmer associations, the program will also help enhance smallholders’ access to local markets and boost local agriculture production.

Poor households in the drought-affected southern and eastern provinces of Cunene, Huila, Cuando Cubango, and Moxico are currently facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes due to lower-than-normal purchasing power. With an early start to the lean season, these outcomes are likely to persist through January 2025. Staple food prices, particularly within the areas of concern, are projected to further increase throughout the outlook period, albeit at a slower rate. Very poor and poor households who are market-dependent will continue experiencing low purchasing power due to below-average incomes and elevated food prices, and may lead to poor households consuming less preferred foods.

Poor households in the drought-affected southern and eastern parts of Angola are expected to have below-normal capacity to cope following the 2023/24 below-average harvest. In Cuando Cubango, where poor households rely more heavily on hunting, cassava, and labor on others’ farms, increased reliance on market purchases is likely amid lower agricultural labor opportunities and below-average incomes. Households will intensify their typical livelihoods strategies, including sale of poultry, increased collection of wild foods, increased sale of firewood and charcoal, labor migration and cleaning other people’s fields, or reducing spending on non-food items to buy food, resulting in continued Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes which will persist through January 2025.

Most rural households throughout the rest of the country are currently facing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes as they are consuming recently harvested crops from the 2023/24 season; these outcomes are expected to persist through January 2025.

A late and erratic start to the 2024/25 agricultural season 

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: A late and erratic start to the 2024/25 agricultural season would delay and reduce agricultural labor opportunities, and hence delay the cash and in-kind payments needed to purchase food and other needs, reducing poor and very poor household food security.

Macroeconomic deterioration resulting from shocks related to oil production or oil prices

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: If oil price and/or production changes lead to renewed inflation it would impact food security by reducing household purchasing capacity. Fiscal constraints on government spending would restrict salaries and potentially the government’s spending on the important Kwenda cash transfer program which targets the most vulnerable rural households.