Remote Monitoring Report

Near average cereal harvests might improve livelihoods in the southwestern region

June 2014
2014-Q2-2-1-AO-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • As a result of the drought from between October 2013 and February 2014, it is estimated that about 7,000 cattle have died in the province of Cunene. The cattle were mostly adults used for traction.

  • Food assistance has resumed in most areas of concern. The Cabinet for Food Security (GSA) of MINAGRI reports that around 500,000 people affected by the drought were given some form of food assistance in the month of May. In Cunene alone, around 7,000 MT of various foodstuffs were distributed.

  • Cereal harvests have started in the highest producing areas of the country. It is expected that cereal production will be higher than the previous season, and above historical trends in cereal production.

  • Between July and September it is projected that the areas in Kwanza Sul and Benguela that fall under the Coastal fish, horticulture and non-farm income zone and most areas of Namibe Province will face Stressed (Phase 2) acute food insecurity due to below-average production and insufficient food assistance; improvements in livelihood conditions in Cunene , under the Southern livestock, millet, and sorghum zone suggest that most of the province will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity.

Zone Current Anomalies Projected Anomalies
Southern livestock, millet and sorghum The herding of cattle in new places has exposed them to new diseases. The MINAGRI has already reported cases of new diseases. Cattle production and sales is expected to be reduced. Households that usually participate in meat sales will likely obtain less income. 
High cattle loss is reducing households’ ability to produce meat, and other related products.
Coastal fish, horticulture and non-farm income Significantly less households are able to plant for the nacas season. A lower than average nacas harvest is likely, coupled with irregular food assistance, and this could impact household food consumption and access. 

 

Projected Outlook Through September 2014

National
  • The majority of the country had a normal agricultural season, especially the highest producing areas of Malanje, Huambo, Bié, and Huila. Cereal harvests have started in most of these areas and based on this season’s average rainfall performance, production is expected to be higher than the previous season, but slightly below average in most parts of the country.
  • Larger markets are dynamic and functional, especially in the surplus producing regions (Malanje, Huambo and Huila). The completion of the road between Santa Lucia (in Cunene) to Lubango (Huila) will ensure the easy movement of goods, especially to remote areas in Cunene, including Kuvelai.
  • Local markets have good availability of imported and national foodstuff. In the southern region the main supplying areas are Calueke in Huila Province and Namibia. It is reported that the millet being sold in these markets is from last year’s production and mostly from Huila. The prices of staple foods are still considered relatively high for this period, but are expected to decrease in the coming months due to improvement of the local harvest prospects. Millet meal is being sold on average at around 85 AKZ /kg in most markets around the southern zone. However, in Cahama and Xangongo millet meal is selling for 65 and 100 AKZ/kg, respectively. In Cunene Province there is also a slight increase in the sales of sour milk, which might indicate an improvement in cattle conditions.
Areas of Concern: Southern Livestock, Millet, Sorghum Livelihood zone (parts of Cunene and Namibe Provinces) and Coastal Fishing Horticulture and Non-Farm Income Zone (parts of Benguela and Kwanza-Sul)
  • Water availability for both human and livestock consumption has improved significantly as a result of the rains that fell from late February to the end of May. Most reservoirs are almost full. Despite high rates of evapotranspiration, the GSA estimates that there will be enough water for a long period of time. The Ministry of Water and Energy (MINEA and local authorities are installing a system of boreholes as part of the Water for All program. These structures are further helping to improve the availability of drinking water in most of the rural areas where reservoirs are not viable.
  • As a result of both water and pasture availability in Cunene, there is improvement in the physical conditions of the cattle. However, despite this recovery, local authorities are cautious because during the transhumance cattle and other livestock traveled to new areas and may be at increased risk of diseases that might cause major losses.
  • Production prospects in Kwanza Sul and Benguela Provinces are below average due to lack of rain. It is reported that the Ministry of Social Affairs has already started proving some food assistance in these areas. In Namibe Province, food assistance is still not being provided, while in Cunene approximately 7,000 tons of various products were distributed under the emergency program. Some parts of Cunene are still reporting a delay in assistance because of poor roads and the lack of resources to pay for shipping. It is therefore expected that the areas of the Coastal Fishing Horticulture and Non-Farm Income zone (Benguela, and Kwanza Sul) and the Southern Livestock, Millet, Sorghum zone (Cunene) will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through July. Livelihoods and food security conditions in the more populous areas of Cunene are expected to improve in the coming months and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity is projected through September. 

 

About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

 

About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics