Remote Monitoring Report

Improved cereal availability may stabilize basic food prices

July 2014
2014-Q3-1-1-AO-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • As the agricultural season progresses, overall production is considered to be good this season. The five provinces accountable for most of production are Kuanza-sul, Huambo, Bié, Malanje and Huila. Total 2013/14 seasonal cereal production is likely to be close to 2.6 million MT; this estimate is higher than last year’s levels and above historical trends.

  • For the Southern Livestock, Millet and Sorghum Livelihood zone in parts of Namibe and Cunene Provinces, it is estimated that cereal and other crop harvests will be below the areas’ estimated production potential this season, however projected harvest levels are still expected to be higher than the 2012/13 season.

  • Over the past few months food security has continuously been showing signs of improvement in the country; the exception has been the areas of Kwanza Sul and Benguela Provinces that fall under the Coastal Fish, Horticulture and Non-farm Income zone. In this area household reliance on rain-fed agricultural has been complicated by poor seasonal rainfall. Food assistance has started in these areas, however it is considered inadequate. As a result, this area will face Stressed (Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes between July and December period. In the Southern Livestock, Millet, and Sorghum zone, poor households in Namibe are also Stressed (Phase 2), while the more populated areas of the zone in Cunene Province will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity between July and December.

Zone Current Anomalies Projected Anomalies
Southern livestock, millet, and sorghum Late (or no) return of most pastoralists from transhumance due to the extended effects of last season’s drought. The extended effects of drought and shifts in transhumance will likely affect the ability of households to produce meat and milk in the period of September-December.
Southern livestock, millet, and sorghum The delayed return of pastoralists from transhumance during the peak labor period means that less people will be available to participate in labor. Most pastoralists that are there might opt to migrate to urban areas for general income because wages are better. The smaller amount of pastoralists available for labor during land preparation and their migration to urban centers, will likely have a negative effect on the agricultural area planted in rural areas. This could impact 2014/15 crop yield.
Coastal fish, horticulture, and non-farm income Because of low production this season, households are moving to urban areas in search of odd jobs in order to be able to generate income needed for fishing supplies. If urban labor opportunities are tight, households may not earn adequate income for fishing. Fishing is expected to supplement household food supplies from Sept.-Dec., so this could reduce household access to fish during the lean season.

 

Projected Outlook Through December 2014

National 
  • The government has been increasing the extent of its subsidy program by introducing new supermarkets intended to commercialize mostly local produce (POUPA LÁ and PAPAROKA), build municipal warehouses in order to increase the reach of the PAPAGRO program, and increase the reach of subsidized inputs to smallholder farmers. The main objectives are two-fold: 1) to increase rural incomes so that poor smallholder farmers can supplement their food consumption, thus reducing food insecurity, and 2) to increase the availability of locally produced crops in local markets. However, operational issues are hindering the ability of these subsidy programs to attain their intended impacts on poor households across the country.
  • At the macroeconomic level, high levels of imports and higher wages has increased liquidity, which is leading to pseudo inflation-like behavior among traders in most of the major markets in the country. Therefore, even though there is an increase in the availability of produce in local markets, the non-weighted Consumer Price Index (CPI) has also increased and this is increasing food prices, limiting access for poor households that are dependent on market purchases for their food needs.
Areas of Concern: Southern Livestock, Millet, Sorghum Livelihood zone (parts of Cunene and Namibe Provinces) and Coastal Fishing Horticulture and Non-Farm Income Zone (parts of Benguela and Kwanza-Sul)
  • Food prices in markets in the Coastal Fishing Horticulture and Non-Farm Income and Southern Livestock, Millet, Sorghum zone are behaving differently than the general national price pattern. The gradual increase in harvest levels in the main supplying areas (Bié and Huila), has been helping to stabilize the prices of the main staple food in the markets in these areas. It should be noted that some staple food prices have actually seen a decrease in prices.
  • In the Southern Livestock, Millet, Sorghum zone Huila Province is the main supplier for Namibe and Cunene; and within Huila, the João de Almeida market in Lubango is the main source of products. In the João de Almeida market, corn, beans, and sweet potatoes had comparatively lower prices than the previous month. However, corn flour prices remained the same and cassava prices rose this month as a result of their scarcity in the market.  These price trends are normal and good for poor households that may be dependent on market purchases for their food needs.

 

 

 

ABOUT REMOTE MONITORING

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. For more information click here.

 

About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics