Remote Monitoring Report

Localized rainfall improves pasture conditions in the south

February 2014
2014-Q1-1-1-AO-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In January rainfall patterns improved a in some parts of Eastern Namibe, Southern Huila and Northeastern Cunene Province. This increase in moisture availability is expected to have a positive impact on cattle body conditions.

  • Despite the increased rainfall in localized areas, pastoralists have not returned to their areas of origin and continue to travel to transhumance destinations. Pastoralists in some areas in Namibe (Virei and Tombwa) and Cunene (Curoca) are still leaving their homesteads due to dryness.

  • Increased rains in Southern Huila has allowed for the intensification of grain and horticultural production under the Rural Development program (PDR), allowing for more labor and stabilizing wages.

  • Though there is some improvement in rainfall, poor households in selected areas of the Southern livestock livelihood zone will continue to depend primarily on government food assistance, and supplies from neighboring Huila Province. Namibe and Cunene Provinces are expected to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food security outcomes through June.

Zone Current Anomalies Projected Anomalies
Southern livestock, Millet and sorghum Late rainfall is improving grazing conditions in transhumant areas, but not in areas where pastoralists live. As a result, pastoralists continue to delay returning to their homesteads. The extension of the lean season is highly likely as more households leave for transhumant areas. This shift of households will introduce complications for food assistance programming, and it might jeopardize participation in the Rural Development Program.
Southern livestock, Millet and sorghum The volume of the expected green harvest in most areas in Namibe and Cunene has been downgraded due to lower rainfall. The extension of the lean season is highly likely as more households leave for transhumant areas. This shift of households will introduce complications for food assistance programming, and it might jeopardize participation in the Rural Development Program.

 

PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH JUNE 2014

 

National

  • Improved rainfall in the month of January has encouraged the Institute of Agricultural Development (IDA) to increase the number of households participating in the Rural Development Program (PDR) in the provinces of Kwanza-Sul, Namibe, Huila, and Cunene. Households are being provided with short-range maize seeds in order to take advantage of the reminder of the season. The upcoming harvest is expected to reduce dependency on government food assistance by May.
  • Local governments are implementing incentives to encourage large cash-and-carry grocers/distributers to establish themselves in provinces, especially in the southern provinces in the Southern Livestock, Millet, and Sorghum Livelihood zone. These bulk grocers are expected to offer an alternative to imports from Namibia, consequently exerting further downward pressure on basic commodity prices.  

Area of Concern: The Southern Livestock, Millet, Sorghum Livelihood zone (zone 3)

  • Since January there have been localized improvements in rainfall in zone 3. Though rainfall is still erratic, some rainfall has allowed for the establishment of significantly better grazing conditions for cattle in the transhumant areas. Large parts of the area of concern are still not receiving rain, and this is delaying the return of households to their areas of origin and planting for the next agricultural season.
  • Additionally, there are plans for the government food distribution to continue in this area until August, along with plans to incorporate many of the transhumant areas in this zone.
  • A bore holes project in parts of neighboring Namibe Province is being implemented and there are plans for this project to be implemented in this zone too. These bore holes would allow for irrigation in cropping areas.
  • Although food security conditions are moving in a positive direction, the sheer number of households and people affected in the six provinces in this zone will still need some help in order to meet their daily food needs for the rest of the lean season. The cereal harvest normally starts in May but will not yield much in this zone due to the late start to the season, erratic rainfall, and continued migration of transhumant households away from the area. Thus, it is expected that households in zone 3 of Namibe and Cunene will continue facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food security through June.
About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work http://www.fews.net/our-work/our-work/scenario-development.

About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics