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Food assistance needs remain high in the southwest due to limited resources

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Angola
  • August 2022
Food assistance needs remain high in the southwest due to limited resources

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  • Key Messages
  • PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH JANUARY 2023
  • Key Messages
    • Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity is expected across most of the country from August to September. Most poor households continue to consume food from their own production and earn income from non-agricultural labor. Minimal conditions are expected to continue from October 2022 to January 2023 as agricultural activities for the 2022/23 cropping season progress. In Cunene, Huíla, and Namibe, poor households are engaging in non-agricultural labor to earn income, as well as participating in livestock migration, but continue to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to limited or no own produced crops and poor grazing and livestock conditions, contributing to below-average purchasing power. Although a normal start to the seasonal rains is expected in October, an earlier-than-normal lean season is likely in affected parts of the southwest in September/October. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will continue in southwestern areas through January 2023.

    • In the southwest, poor households affected by successive shocks are generating income through the sale of traditional alcoholic beverages made from wild fruits, the sale of  small livestock (goats, chicken, and sheep), and when there is no other alternative—through the sale of  cattle – usually the weakest. Households use part of the income generated from these activities to buy essentials for consumption. The start of the rains in October is likely to increase agricultural labor opportunities such as land preparation and planting. However, agro-pastoralist households participating in livestock migration are unlikely to return in time for the beginning of the 2022/23 cropping season due to the greater distances traveled and poor livestock conditions.

    • According to the WFP, food assistance was not distributed to households in Cunene and Huíla in  July and August because of extremely low turnout due to the ongoing political campaign activities leading up to the presidential election in late August. Food assistance activities are planned to resume in mid-September  through the end of October. Humanitarian resources are limited, and WFP’s response program from the next six months is not fully funded.

    • The annual headline inflation rate eased moderately to 21.4 percent in July, a two-year low and the sixth-consecutive reduction in inflation in 2022. Although inflation has moderated in 2022, consumer prices will remain elevated due to high global food prices keeping upward inflation pressure. As a result, continued high inflation rates will constrain disposable incomes and personal consumption.

    ZONECURRENT ANOMALIESPROJECTED ANOMALIES
    National
    • Oil revenues continue to bolster the exchange rate of the Kwanza, averaging Kz425/$ in June 2022, which is down from Kz638 in June 2021. In addition, a strong local currency and the stocks from the Strategic Food Reserve continue to mitigate some of the commodity price shocks of imported goods. 
    • Higher oil production and prices mean higher oil revenues which will support higher government spending and growth of the non-oil economy. The influx of foreign exchange to Angola will continue strengthening the kwanza's exchange rate. Nevertheless, recurrent COVID-19 lockdowns in major Chinese cities and ports could potentially hamper Angola’s oil exports to China, which is the biggest buyer of Angolan oil.

    • Although inflation has moderated in 2022, consumer prices will remain elevated due to high global food prices keeping upward inflation pressure. As a result, continued high inflation rates will constrain disposable incomes and personal consumption. 

    Southern Livestock, Millet, and Sorghum (A03) and Southern Highlands Agro-Pastoral (A04)
    • In August, households in drought-affected areas are likely to increase their reliance on petty trade and the sale of services for income.

    • The stress caused by increased dryness and high temperatures is pushing some families to migrate upstream gradually to shorten the distance to grazing areas. Less resourceful households cannot find water and forage, so they stay home and sell animals. The income obtained is being used to acquire necessary goods. Few households are preemptively relocating permanently to new areas. 

    • In September, most households will participate in land clearing. In October, planting is expected to start. Households with access to seeds will maximize the area planted to rebuild their food stocks and recover from the poor 2021/2022 agricultural season. Agricultural labor wages in drought-affected areas are likely to be higher than last year and close to the five-year average.

    • The longer distances pastoralist households travel, the weaker conditions of animals, and limited or no access to seeds from 2021/22 production, make it unlikely that most households will return in time for the beginning of the 2022/23 agricultural season.

     


    PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH JANUARY 2023

    In August, most poor households across the country faced Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes supported by the availability of food stocks at the household level and second-season crop production. However, in drought-affected areas of the southwest, a poor 2021/2022 harvest, depletion of food stocks, difficulty finding water and forage for livestock, and limited income generation opportunities are resulting in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in Namibe, Cunene, and Huíla.

    Affected households in Cunene, Namibe, and Huíla span across livelihood zones A03 and A04, which are mainly centered on crop and livestock production. Poor households in A03 and A04 obtain 55 to 90 percent of their annual food needs from crop production while covering the remainder through food purchases. Cash income is received by poor households in A04 through mostly labor and self-employment, with a smaller amount earned through crop sales. In A03, poor households rely more on transhumant pastoralism and rearing livestock for income during a typical year.

    In Namibe and Cunene, the dry season is currently ongoing. Households are engaging in non-agricultural labor to earn income and participating in livestock migration. Pastoralist households are traveling longer distances than usual in search of food and forage, with some families gradually relocating upstream. In Huíla, households are tending to vegetable gardens, and land preparation is expected to begin in September. Currently, households are generating income through selling traditional alcoholic beverages made from wild fruits, selling small animals (goats, chicken, and sheep), and--when there is no other alternative—through the sale of  cattle – usually the weakest. Households are using part of the income generated from these activities to buy essential food items for consumption.

    The start of the rains in October is likely to increase agricultural labor opportunities such as land preparation and planting. However, agro-pastoralist households participating in livestock migration are unlikely to return in time for the beginning of the 2022/23 cropping season due to the greater distances traveled and the weaker livestock conditions.

    According to WFP, food assistance was not distributed to households in Cunene and Huíla in July and August 2022 because of extremely low turnout due to the ongoing political campaign activities leading to the presidential election in late August. Food assistance activities are planned to resume in mid-September through the end of October. Humanitarian resources are limited, and WFP’s response program for the next six months is not fully funded.

    The annual headline inflation rate eased moderately to 21.4 percent in July, a two-year low and the sixth-consecutive reduction in inflation in 2022. This decline is mainly due to the strengthening of the local currency over the past year, reducing the costs of imported goods. As a result, the monthly inflation rate in July was 0.8 percent, a small change from the 0.84 percent recorded in June (Figure 1).

    Food and beverage subindices contributed the most to the rise in inflation due to the steep increase in global food prices due to the Ukraine Crisis. As a result, the annual inflation for food and beverages was 24 percent in July. Meanwhile, annual transport inflation stood at 12.8 percent in July, partly due to fuel subsidies---keeping fuel pump prices among the lowest in the world.

    Across most of the country, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected from August 2022 to January 2023. Most poor households across the country will continue to access food from their own production and earn income through agricultural labor and self-employment activities, allowing for purchasing of essential and non-essential items during the outlook period. A normal start of seasonal rainfall is expected in October, and average production prospects are expected. In drought-affected areas of the southwest, an earlier start to the lean season is likely. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will continue during this period in Cunene, Huíla, and Namibe. Poor households in these areas will be relying entirely on market purchases due to limited to no access to own-produced food and will face lower-than-normal purchasing power due to below-average incomes.

     

    Figures

    Figure 1

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 2

    Figure 1.

    Source: FEWS NET with data from INE

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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