Remote Monitoring Report

Stable food security conditions expected as the harvest progresses

August 2014
2014-Q3-1-1-AO-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • As projected in the previous month, the 2013/14 harvest season continues to increase food availability at the household level. This influx of food supplies continues to decrease food prices, improving access for households relying on market purchases and creating favorable food security conditions across most of the country. 

  • The reintroduction of cattle auctions in the southern part of the country has increased the volume of cattle trade. Besides stabilizing prices, these auctions are likely to decrease the risk of food insecurity for pastoralists if drought conditions persist into the next season.  

  • Despite improvement in food availability at the national level, higher food prices for households in the Coastal, Fish, Horticulture, and Non-farm income zone, along with few alternative sources of income in the less populated areas of Cunene and Namibe (Southern Livestock, Millet, and Sorghum zone) will result in Stressed (Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes between August and December. However, the more populous areas in the Southern Livestock zone will have Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity between August and December.  

Zone Current Anomalies Projected Anomalies
Southern Livestock, Millet, & Sorghum There has been a marked increase in charcoal sells by poor households in local markets  The ability to earn income relatively faster from the sale of charcoal might reduce the incentive to engage in crop production during the Sept-Dec period for most households next season.
Southern Livestock, Millet, & Sorghum There has been a marked increase in the sale of cattle by the local pastoralists due to better prices and fears of drought conditions during the upcoming season.   The increasing willingness of pastoralists to sell cattle might reduce the number participating in transhumance, resulting in increased reliance on the markets for food purchases during the Sept-Dec period and beyond. 
Coastal Fish, Horticulture, and non-farm Income Due to the poor agricultural season there is a decrease in available foodstuffs and an increase in the average prices for these products.  Because of the higher food prices household might start to use their coping mechanisms much earlier than usual (i.e., selling household assets, etc) to acquire food during the mid-August to Dec. period. 
Coastal Fish, Horticulture, and non-farm Income Most poor households that rely on income from agricultural labor did not earn very much this season due to the poor rainfall conditions.  In order to supplement their food and non-food needs many householders might end up permanently moving to urban areas where there are more income generating opportunities. 

 

Projected Outlook Through December 2014

National
  • As the harvest season progresses food supplies are becoming more available throughout the markets in the country. For smallholder farmers, the continued support by the government through the PAPAGRO program remains a good source of income and a guaranteed market for new harvests. This subsidy program is acting as an indirect income multiplier because farmers are being incentivized to harvest more intensely than before, and this is also increasing agricultural labor demand. Overall, the program is proving to be a good job opportunity for many of the poorer householders to generate income in the rural areas, which should help to improve household food security.  
  • The intensification of agriculture through subsidies has particularly benefited poor households in Huambo Province. For example, in Huambo, 262,533 smallholder families and 384 small agricultural operations have so far harvested 171 MT of maize, 56 MT of beans, 517 tons of soy bean, with the help of hired farm labor.

 

Areas of Concern: Southern Livestock, Millet, Sorghum Livelihood zone (parts of Cunene and Namibe Provinces) and Coastal Fishing Horticulture and Non-Farm Income Zone (parts of Benguela and Kwanza-Sul)
  • There are still some areas still facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes in the south. In the Southern livelihood zone, even though the number of people receiving assistance has reduced since last month, the Ministry of Agriculture reported that the households most at risk of food insecurity (mostly in the areas of Cuvelai, Curoca and Cahama in Cunene) may run out of food supplies sooner than expected (late October/beginning of November). Because the government is using national supplies to supplement deficit areas, the Government food assistance will depend on the national final harvest results, which are not yet available.
  • For the first time since 1974, cattle auctions are being reintroduced in the Southern Livestock, Millet and Sorghum livelihood zone. In these auctions, a 500 kg bull was sold for around AOA 70,000. The objective of the auction is to reduce speculative pricing and help to stabilize the standard price for cattle so that more people will be enticed to sell if they want to. So far Cunene, Namibe, and Cuando Cubango Provinces reported fairly high sales of more than 2,350 heads of cattle. About a quarter of the cattle were of the hardy Sanga breed that is preferred by local pastoralists, suggesting that local pastoralists are participating and benefiting from the auction.

 

ABOUT REMOTE MONITORING

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. For more information click here.

 

About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics