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Projected above-average grain harvest expected to improve food access in the south

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Angola
  • April 2015
Projected above-average grain harvest expected to improve food access in the south

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  • Key Messages
  • Projected Outlook Through September 2015
  • Key Messages
    • Projected above-average harvest production and the increase in market grain supplies are gradually pushing down food prices in most of the country. However, tighter foreign exchange controls might offset grain price decreases, negatively affecting food access for poor households that are market-dependent.  

    • Torrential rains continue to negatively affect poor households in and around Lobito. However, currently, there are concerns about the poor public health conditions in the crowded camps, which could prevent household members from seeking work.  

    • As the harvest of the 2014/15 agricultural season begins, the current Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes among poor households are expected to continue through June. Between July and September, households will begin to have access to their own produced cereal stocks and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to continue for the post-harvest period. 

    ZoneCurrent AnomaliesProjected Anomalies
    Coastal Fishing, Horticulture, and Non-farm IncomeHousholds affected by torrential rains continue to be displaced in and around Lobito. Poor public health conditions in the temporary settlements could adversely affect the health of individuals that would usually sell their labor in-kind or for cash.The inabilityof individuals to participate in labor opportunities will further limit the livelihood activities that displaced households have access to for this new consumption period. People with malaria may be too sick to participate in labor for the next 3-6 months.

     


    Projected Outlook Through September 2015

    National

    • Preliminary data on the agricultural season show that five central provinces (Cuanza-Sul, Huambo, Bie, Huila, and Benguela) will produce an estimated 80 percent of all cereal and beans in the country. Even though this production is mostly rain-fed agriculture practiced largely by poor households, and the rainfall has been inconsistent in these areas, the Ministry of Agriculture (MINAGRI) estimates that there was an overall 8 percent increase for all crops in the area planted as compared to the previous season. Additionally, MINAGRI estimates show an approximately 17 percent increase in cereal harvests (with maize accounting for the majority) and a 9 percent increase in bean harvests, as compared to the previous season.
    • The main harvest for most crops (except cassava) is approaching, and above-average production projections are expected to push national prices down given that most traders are eager to get rid of the previous season’s crops. However, food prices in the southern parts of the region are expected to follow an atypical trend and prices for items like maize meal are expected to stay high due to combined higher fuel prices and the gradual devaluation of the Kwanza. Nonetheless, prices of sweet potatoes and, to some extent, cassava are expected so start observing steep decreases due to the entry of new players in the market, including commercial farms in Namibe.

    Areas of Concern: Southern Livestock, Millet, Sorghum Livelihood zone (parts of Cunene and Namibe Provinces) and Coastal Fishing, Horticulture, and Non-farm Income

    • In Lobito and other surrounding areas, even though heavy rain continues to cause damage to poor households, the impact is being gradually minimized by the assistance being provided by both government agencies and community-based organizations. However, as we move forward, there are concerns about the poor public health conditions in the makeshift camps. These health issues (including the increase in the incidence of malaria) might negatively impact the ability of physically capable persons in a household to stay productive and thus earn income to smooth any consumption gaps.
    • The situation in Namibe is similar to most of the country, local MINAGRI officers are expecting a 10 percent increase in agricultural production as compared to the last agricultural season, with horticultural production accounting for over half of this increase. The increase in cereal production is due to an increase in areas planted. As opposed to previous months, there has been slight decrease in cattle prices in the outskirts of the city of Namibe, which might signal the start to a gradual deterioration in pasture conditions and the availability of drinking water for cattle in most of the province.
    • Due to relatively improved cropping conditions in Cunene, as compared to the last agricultural season, local MINIAGRI expects that there will be an increase of about 17 percent in the production of sorghum and a 13 percent increase in millet as compared to the previous agricultural season. This increase can be attributed to more cultivation by pastoralists that decided not to migrate with their animals because of the relatively good pasture conditions locally. In addition to an increase in the number of producers this season, households also used improved seeds and in some cases did some replanting. However, this increase in grain production is expected to be offset by the increase in local consumption since the households that usually relocate elsewhere during this period will be consuming food in Cunene. As a result, expected production levels will still supply households with supplies for consumption for the normal period of two months. 

     

    ABOUT REMOTE MONITORING

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. For more information click here.

    Figures Seasonal Calendar

    Figure 1

    Seasonal Calendar

    Source: Fews Net

    Figure 2

    Source:

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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