Remote Monitoring Report

Continued dryness could worsen the food security situation in Benguela and Kwanza Sul

April 2014
2014-Q2-1-1-AO-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • After a late start of the seasonal rains in Benguela and Kwanza-Sul Provinces, irregular rainfall and dryness has been experienced in these areas throughout much of the season. According to the local cabinet for food security (GSA), this will be the fourth consecutive year of abnormal rainfall patterns in these areas. This dryness has resulted in lower river levels and the drying up of small rivers, which might negatively impact Nacas or flood recession cultivation in these provinces.

  • Even though government food assistance is being provided to households in Cunene and Namibe Provinces, the assistance has not improved household food security outcomes in the targeted areas due to the inefficiency of the distribution system. In parts of Benguela and Kwanza-Sul cropping is no longer viable due to dryness and poor households continue to abandon their small plots and migrate into the cities. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes are expected to persist in all four areas through September.

Zone

current anomalies

projected anomalies

Southern livestock, Millet and sorghum The area of food crops planted in Cunene and Namibe is significantly lower this season and there is reduced availability of staple foods in the homestead areas that Pastoralists migrated from. The cumulative effect of 2 consecutive droughts and the current rainfall deficits might continue to erode the ability of local pastoralists to produce milk, meat, and cereals in order to sustain their livelihoods due to increasingly longer distances travelled.
Coastal fish, horticulture and non-farm income Cropping in Benguela and Kwanza-Sul was not viable due to the lack of rainfall during the main season. Some households in Porto Amboim, Seles, and Sumbe are starting to prepare land in anticipation of improved rainfall for the remainder of the season. Dryness and lack of adequate humidity might complicate the Nacas cropping season due to the lack of flooding this monsoon season.

 

Projected Outlook Through September 2014

National
  • Above-normal rainfall in some parts of the center of the country (mostly center-east of Huambo, eastern parts of Bié, and Northern Huila) could negatively impact the projected cereal harvest through potential damage by run-off.;  The western areas received poor seasonal rainfall and this could impact crop and pastoral conditions. The rest of country had a normal growing season and some areas are preparing for the main harvest.
  • The continued increase in the coverage area under the Ministry of Commerce’s Acquisition of Agricultural Products program (PAPAGRO) is helping to stabilize cereal (maize) supplies and horticulture products (tomatoes, lettuce, and cabbage) into the cities.
Areas of Concern: Southern Livestock, Millet, Sorghum Livelihood zone (parts of Cunene and Namibe Provinces) and Coastal Fishing Horticulture and Non-Farm Income Zone (parts of Benguela and Kwanza-Sul
  • The majority of the families in the Coastal Fishing Horticulture and Non-Farm Income (zone 1) are on average preparing/cultivating 2 plots that are averaging 1.5 ha each. Most families planted, or are planning to plant, a combination of maize and cassava under a rain-fed system. However, drought conditions affecting localized parts of Benguela and Kwanza Sul might reduce the viability of the maize crop planted; the cassava crop is more resistant to dryness and might not be affected as much.
  • Most areas affected by dryness in Benguela and Kwanza Sul are not yet included in the PAPAGRO program. The government is planning to increase the coverage of the PAPAGRO program in these areas affected.
  • The local branch of the Ministry of Agriculture in Namibe started a pilot program aimed at drilling boreholes in the dry Giraúl River bed in the Virei area (around 20 km away from the center of Virei). The water found in these boreholes is being used for irrigation, with some level of success, however limited. Future plans are calling for the creation of an expansive subterranean piped network in the region that will be used for irrigation.
  • Erratic rainfall and dryness during the main production season in Benguela and Kwanza-Sul is expected to reduce production during the Nacas season, which relies on flood recession for cultivation. Therefore, it is expected that the areas of Benguela and Kwanza Sul that fall under the zone 1 will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food security through September. For Namibe and Cunene, even though localized food assistance has started it is not reaching the majority of the population because some pastoralist households have still not returned to their homestead. Additionally, the food distribution system still faces logistical challenges. Both Namibe and Cunene Provinces will continue facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food security through September.

 

About Remote Monitoring
In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work at www.fews.net/our-work/our-work/scenario-development.

About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics