Population in need likely to increase as lean season starts early

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In drought-affected southern and eastern Angola, the lean season started early in September, with many households likely exhausting their food stocks atypically early and becoming market dependent for food amid high prices. As a result, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are ongoing and expected to persist through January 2025. Poor households in Cunene, Cuando Cubango, Moxico, Huíla, and parts of Benguela and Namibe provinces are likely among the worst-drought affected and are relying on borrowed food and generating income from selling off-own farm products to purchase food. Households in these areas have faced multiple droughts which are eroding livelihood assets and decreasing their ability to cope with the current shocks.
In addition to reports of hunger in these drought-affected areas, there are concerns of high food prices negatively impacting very poor households’ ability to access food in other rural and urban areas, which are likely to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected in the rest of the country due to an average main harvest and second season production.
Although the pace of inflation has been slowing, staple food prices continue to increase, remain high, and may rise further due to recent currency depreciation. Monthly food inflation has been declining since February, with annual headline inflation decreasing in August (to 30.5 percent) for the first time since April 2023. However, Angola’s reliance on imported food combined with recent depreciation of the Angolan kwanza (AOA) relative to the USD (924 AOA/USD in August) is also impacting food prices. Since early May 2024, the AOA depreciated an additional 10 percent following 11 months of stability after the large devaluation in May/June 2023.
The coming months are likely to have mixed conditions for agriculture and the economy. According to forecasts from FEWS NET’s science partners, average rains are likely. However, monitoring models show very low soil moisture across much of Angola in August, only easing slightly in September with an atypically slow recovery. Some farmers also lack maize seeds for planting, according to state media, and fertilizer imports are still pending. Consequently, agricultural labor opportunities may be delayed and lower than normal, prolonging below-average incomes for poor households and consequently constraining their purchasing capacity.
The purchasing capacity of some households is likely to be supported by significant increases in the minimum wage, which took effect on September 15 and are intended to compensate for inflation: wages were increased by 45 to 100 percent to 70,000 AOA (about 80 USD) per month. Some increased drought-related humanitarian relief is currently being targeted at two municipalities in Huíla and two in Cunene, but the scope of scaled-up humanitarian food aid in the coming months remains uncertain.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Angola Key Message Update September 2024: Population in need likely to increase as lean season starts early, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.