Southwestern areas experiencing early seasonal rainfall deficits

A normal seasonal onset of rains has occurred and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to continue across most of the country from November 2022 to January 2023. As the lean season begins, many households have nearly depleted their own production and are relying more on markets for food purchases, which is typical for this time of the year. The increased demand on market supplies is starting to put upward pressure on food prices. The release of more rice, beans, wheat, and corn flour by the Strategic Food Reserve (REA) is planned to help contain the prices of basic foodstuff. There are reports that traders are acquiring products in Luanda and selling to markets in Benguela, Huambo, and Lubango since food prices in Luanda continue to be lower than those in central and western provinces.

Most poor households in southwestern areas are engaging in petty trade since many have not returned from livestock migration and few are available to tend to the fields. Some available household members are continuing field preparation activities, and some are engaging in weeding the fields of other farmers. Households continue to intensify their livelihood strategies in order to minimize food consumption deficits. Some households continue to gather wild fruit, produce alcoholic beverages for sale, and participate in occasional day labor. As the lean season progresses, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to continue, with acute food insecurity improving slightly in January as some households begin to access horticultural harvests and from March to May 2023, during the main harvest period in the southwest. November is the final month of humanitarian food assistance distributions by the WFP in Cunene and Huila.  

After a timely start to the seasonal rains across most of the country, the 2022/23 agricultural season is under way. Updated forecast indicates a high likelihood of below-average rainfall in parts of western Angola, which are typically high production areas. In comparison to the 18-year mean, preliminary data for October and November indicates that rainfall is underperforming in a few areas in the west. In the southwest, remote sensing data indicates that rainfall amounts are near the amounts for the 2021/22 season and the 18-year average, but anecdotal reports indicate that soil moisture levels are below average. On the ground, there are still reports that many agro-pastoral households have yet to return to their homesteads in time to plant for the 2022/23 agricultural season. Additionally, other factors including decreased access to seed and fertilizer may impact area planted this season. Crop conditions in the west and southwest will need to be monitored closely over the next several months.

Headline inflation continues to follow a downward trend, decreasing from 21.4 percent in July 2022 to 16.68 percent in November 2022. During this same five month period, the value of the kwanza to the USD has declined by 20 percent ($424 USD to $509 USD). Though the annual inflation rate is declining, domestic prices keep rising albeit at a slower monthly inflation rate. In October, the prices of national and imported products increased by 1.84 percent and 0.88 percent, respectively.