Below-average harvests lead to early lean season

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Poor and very poor households in drought-affected southern and eastern Angola (Cunene, Cuando Cubango, Moxico, and Huila provinces) are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through January due to below-average harvests and high staple food prices. Nationally, Angola’s 2023/24 grain harvest is estimated to be 25 percent below the five-year average, according to FAO. As such, poor agropastoral households in the south and east will likely deplete their stocks of sorghum and millet atypically early; some households will cope by selling or exchanging their livestock for food.
In other rural areas that were either less affected or not affected by drought, a proportion of poor rural households likely face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes as they deplete their harvests and rely on market purchases amid high food prices. High food prices are also placing pressure on the purchasing power of poor households in urban areas, who also likely face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. However, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected at the provincial level through January, as a majority of rural households are typically able to meet their essential food and non-food needs through own-produced vegetables, grains, roots, and tubers supplemented by the purchase of food from markets, while urban households have diverse sources of income to cope with high food prices.
Food and non-food prices are projected to continue to rise due to further cuts in fuel subsidies expected in the second half of 2024. Additionally, the Angolan kwanza (AOA) weakened to 890 AOA/USD at the end of July (above estimates for the remainder of 2024), resulting in higher prices of imported food. Angola will need to import 1.65 million MT of grain (28 percent more than average) to bridge this year’s production deficit. Although Angola’s Strategic Food Reserve added maize to its domestic crop purchases, few smallholders know of the Reserve or can navigate the reportedly difficult sales process. Analysts now expect the National Bank of Angola to continue fighting inflation by further raising interest rates, thereby limiting economic growth.
Recent news reports highlight evidence of worsening acute food insecurity due to poor 2023/24 agricultural production and high food prices in drought-affected areas. In Moxico Province, 22 children reportedly died from acute malnutrition during the first quarter of the year, reflecting a nearly 145 percent year-on-year increase in deaths from malnourishment, according to a government health official. Over 2,000 children were also diagnosed with and treated for acute malnutrition during the same period, double the number in the first quarter of 2023. Recent deterioration in food security in Cuando Cubango has also been reported by state and independent media.
To improve households’ access to food in drought-affected southern areas, WFP received emergency funding to scale up community-based management of acute malnutrition. WFP will facilitate screening of 63,000 children under the age of five, nutrition assistance to 7,600 children, and distribution of food vouchers to 5,000 food-insecure households.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Angola Key Message Update July 2024: Below-average harvests lead to early lean season, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.