Southern Africa

Southern Africa
ALERT

Strong El Niño will drive high needs across Southern Africa through early 2025

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Key Message Update
October 2023
Preparation for the 2023/2024 cropping season begins amidst El Niño
  • In Southern Africa, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are present in weather-shocked areas of Mozambique, Malawi, and conflict-affected areas in eastern DRC and Cabo Delgado, Mozambique. Across much of the region, the high cost of living drives Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes as harvested food stocks for households in typically low-producing areas decline. In Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, and the Grand South and Grand Southeast of Madagascar, humanitarian assistance supports Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes. From October 2023 to January 2024, the start of the 2023/24 rainy season is expected to be impacted by the strong El Nino. The start of the lean season and lower-than-normal access to agricultural labor opportunities will limit household access to income amid high food prices, driving the emergence of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in areas that recorded a poor 2023 harvest. 
  • Maize grain prices in most monitored regional markets are stable but higher than the five-year average. Maize prices will rise seasonally as demand increases through the lean season. In Malawi, stable food prices began to rise earlier than normal, especially in southern markets, which Tropical Cyclone Freddy heavily impacted. Maize grain prices in Lilongwe increased by 29  percent in August compared to July, significantly impacting household purchasing power. Inflation remains in double digits in several countries and above government targets in most countries. The acceleration in inflation rates is largely attributable to persistently high food prices, increases in global energy prices, weak exchange rates, and high international borrowing rates. Although annual inflation rates have trended downwards in Mozambique, rates are still above pre-pandemic levels in Malawi, DRC, Zimbabwe, and Madagascar. The disinflationary trend observed since the beginning of the year ended in Lesotho and South Africa with the lean season approaching. 
  • In Southern Africa, wheat harvesting continues under favorable conditions, and the season will conclude in November and December. Land preparation and planting of main-season cereals for the 2023/24 agricultural season are beginning in Angola, Zimbabwe, and Lesotho, and initial conditions are favorable. Rainfall onset is yet to start across most regions but typically occurs in November. The strong El Niño will likely result in an erratic start to the rainy season, negatively impacting planted areas and crop performance. Some governments are making plans to improve poor households’ access to inputs, boost production, and support farmers through subsidized fertilizer and seeds (Lesotho), the distribution of agricultural inputs (Angola), suspending import duties on nitrogenous fertilizer, and targeted input assistance programs tailored to specific agroclimatic regions (Zimbabwe). 
  • Continued conflict in eastern DRC and sporadic attacks in parts of Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, are continuing to displace households and reduce participation in agricultural activities. According to OCHA, some 673,160 people have been displaced in South Kivu, DRC, over the past three months, and households are expected to be less involved in agricultural activities during the harvest season. In Mozambique, around 850,600 people remained displaced in Cabo Delgado. However, insurgent movements southwards from Macomia district into Quissanga district and the fear of attacks lead to displacements as households slowly return to their homes ahead of the 2023/24 agricultural season.
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Food Security
Key Message Update Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to increase as the lean season approaches in Southern Africa Southern Africa September 2023
Key Message Update Food prices remain high as the 2023 main harvest concludes Southern Africa August 2023
Food Security Outlook Conflict and weather shocks drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes despite a regionally favorable harvest Southern Africa July 2023
Agroclimatology
Seasonal Monitor Southern Africa Seasonal Monitor-March 2023 Southern Africa March 1, 2023
Global Weather Hazards Flooding spreads into southeastern Africa, while parts of southern Africa remain abnormally dry Global February 17, 2023 - February 23, 2023
Global Weather Hazards Southern Africa experiences flooding, while abnormal dryness continues in Eastern Africa Global February 10, 2023 - February 16, 2023
Markets & Trade
Supply and Market Outlook Southern Africa Regional Supply and Market Outlook Southern Africa October 1, 2023
Price Bulletin Southern Africa Price Bulletin Southern Africa October 2023
Price Bulletin Southern Africa Price Bulletin Southern Africa September 2023
Alerts / Special Reports
Alert Strong El Niño will drive high needs across Southern Africa through early 2025 Southern Africa November 8, 2023
Food Security
Key Message Update Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to increase as the lean season approaches in Southern Africa Southern Africa September 2023
Key Message Update Food prices remain high as the 2023 main harvest concludes Southern Africa August 2023
Food Security Outlook Conflict and weather shocks drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes despite a regionally favorable harvest Southern Africa July 2023
Agroclimatology
Seasonal Monitor Southern Africa Seasonal Monitor-March 2023 Southern Africa March 1, 2023
Global Weather Hazards Flooding spreads into southeastern Africa, while parts of southern Africa remain abnormally dry Global February 17, 2023 - February 23, 2023
Global Weather Hazards Southern Africa experiences flooding, while abnormal dryness continues in Eastern Africa Global February 10, 2023 - February 16, 2023
Markets & Trade
Supply and Market Outlook Southern Africa Regional Supply and Market Outlook Southern Africa October 1, 2023
Price Bulletin Southern Africa Price Bulletin Southern Africa October 2023
Price Bulletin Southern Africa Price Bulletin Southern Africa September 2023
Alerts / Special Reports
Alert Strong El Niño will drive high needs across Southern Africa through early 2025 Southern Africa November 8, 2023
Food Security Outlook Briefing Food Security Outlook Briefing

June 2023 - January 2024

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Food Security Classification Data View all Southern Africa classification data
Southern Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification (September 2023 - January 2024)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (September 2023) and medium term (October 2023 - January 2024) periods.

Southern Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile September 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) Southern Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification September 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: September 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.kml) (KML) Southern Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification (July 2023 - January 2024)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (July 2023 - September 2023) and medium term (October 2023 - January 2024) periods.

Southern Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile July 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) Southern Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification July 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: July 2023 - September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: July 2023 - September 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.kml) (KML) Southern Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification (June 2023 - January 2024)

Current (June 2023) food security outcomes and forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (June 2023 - September 2023) and medium term (October 2023 - January 2024) periods.

Southern Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile June 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) Southern Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification June 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Current Situation: June 2023 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: June 2023 - September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.png) (PNG) Current Situation: June 2023 (.kml) (KML) Near Term Projection: June 2023 - September 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.kml) (KML)
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Maize, Normal Year
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