Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Owing to the favorable 2021 harvest, households in most parts of the region are still consuming own produced staple and continue to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Although, in deficit-producing areas of southern Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and Malawi, households are experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes as the lean season has already begun. In drought-affected southern Madagascar, most poor households rely heavily on food assistance and Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are ongoing. Across the region, these outcomes are expected to continue until the 2022 harvest begins in April as households start consuming own-produced foods. 

Conflict in Mozambique and DRC continues to disrupt livelihood activities and displacement, leading to the loss of typical food and income sources. Households affected by conflict continue to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes as they have little food stocks and low purchasing power. IOM estimates that around 642,000 IDPs in Cabo Delgado are living among host communities or in resettlement areas with little to no access to typical livelihood activities. According to OCHA, in DRC, over 59,000 people are newly displaced, and since October, nearly 135,000 people have returned to their areas of residence in conflict zones of the northeast and center-east. In both countries, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) are expected to continue through May as the agricultural activities are expected to be limited due to insecurity.

The forecast for 2021/22 rainfall is average to above average. The expected favorable seasonal rainfall will mark the second consecutive good season across much of the region. This is likely to facilitate engagement in agricultural activities. Increased availability of agricultural opportunities will likely help support household income for many poor households. 

Staple prices are showing mixed trends across the region. In Zimbabwe, a combination of reduced market supply in southern deficit-producing areas and high national inflation are contributing to increases in staple food prices. Markets in southern Madagascar are also expecting above-average staple prices as market supplies are very low due to the impacts of last year's drought. In Malawi, maize price increases were recorded in half of the monitored markets between August and September; prices remained stable in the rest. Across all markets, prices are expected to remain near the five-year average. In Mozambique, maize grain prices in September were up to 30 percent lower than the same time last year and close to the five-year average due to stable market supply.