Despite a late start, cumulative rainfall in the Sahel is mostly average to above-average
Correio eletrônico
ImprimirFases de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda baseadas em IPC v3.0
Fases de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda baseadas em IPC v3.0
humanitária em vigor ou programad
Fases de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda baseadas em IPC v3.0
humanitária em vigor ou programad
UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS
Figure 1. ITF position and RFE accumulated precipitation (mm), September 2021, Dekad 2
Figure 2. 1-25 September total CHIRPS anomaly (% of average)
- The ITF continues its southward retreat and is located between 15.4 degrees of latitude north in eastern Chad and 19.5 degrees in Mauritania as of the second dekad of September. It is at or close to its climatological position over the whole region (Figure 1).
- The end of the season in the Sahelian zone is nearing and the ITF being at its climatological position suggests the season end will be on time. It also means crops will reach maturity over most places in the Sahelian zone.
- Severe dryness in September has affected the Mopti region in Mali, part of Tillaberi, Tahoua and Maradi regions in Niger (Figure 2). The southwestern part of the region of Mopti and the northeastern part of Segou in Mali and the Maradi region in Niger are, in addition to severe rainfall deficit, also affected by long dry spells of over 15 days. The region of Tahoua only experienced rainfall severe deficits without dry spells.
- September dryness normally creates favorable conditions for crop pest outbreaks. Therefore, dryness affected areas of Mali and Niger are likely to suffer from crop pest attacks.
- The seasonal cumulative rainfall from May 1st to September 25 has been above average over most of the region. However, negative impact of dryness on crop and pasture development over areas where dryness has persisted for a very long time such as Far North Cameroon and Lake Chad is expected.
FORECASTS
- According to the short and medium term forecasts from NOAA-CPC, no rainfall in the Sahelian zone. This means that the season will end in the Sahelian by early October.
- The NOAA-CPC Northern American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) monthly forecast for October generally predict below average rainfall over the Guinean and Sudano-Guinean zones.
Acerca Deste Relatorio
O monitor sazonal é produzido para cada uma das quatro regiões que a FEWS NET abrange durante a estação de produção. Este relatório actualiza os totais de precipitação, o impacto sobre a produção e as previsões a curto prazo. Produzido pelo cientista regional da FEWS NET USGS e pelo Gestor Técnico Regional da FEWS NET, é elaborado a cada 20 dias durante a estação de produção. Mais informações sobre o nosso trabalho aqui.
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A Rede de Sistemas de AlertaPrecoce de Fome é líder na provisão de alertas precoces e análises relativas à insegurança alimentar. Estabelecida em 1985 com o fim de auxiliar os responsáveis pela tomada de decisões a elaborar planos para crises humanitárias, a FEWS NET provê análises baseadas em evidências em cerca de 35 países. Entre os membros implementadores refere-se a NASA , NOAA, USDA e o USGS, assim como a Chemonics International Inc. e a Kimetrica. Leia mais sobre o nosso trabalho.
