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ABOUT THIS REPORT
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food supply and price trends in countries at risk of food insecurity. The Regional Supply and Market Outlook report provides a summary of regional staple food availability, surpluses and deficits during the current marketing year, projected price behavior, implications for local and regional commodity procurement, and essential market monitoring indicators. FEWS NET gratefully acknowledges partner organizations, national ministries of agriculture, national market information systems, regional organizations, and others for their assistance in providing the harvest estimates, commodity balance sheets, as well as trade and price data used in this report.
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Aggregate regional cereal production is expected to be above average in 2015/16, contributing to generally stable prices. Regional maize and rice production reached record high levels.
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Areas experiencing below average production and atypical deficits include Chad and Ghana. Production in Northeastern Nigeria and eastern Niger (Diffa) are expected to be below average and market activities are expected to remain disrupted due to conflict in the greater Lake Chad area. This may result in atypical price trends in affected markets.
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Imports from stable international markets will fill structural regional deficits of rice and wheat. Global commodity markets are expected to remain well supplied and prices stable despite the El Niño conditions.
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In Ghana, poor macroeconomic conditions, below average cereal production, and well-above average domestic prices have resulted in below-average exports. Favorable production in other areas of the Central basin will likely offset any major impacts.
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Regional institutional procurement is expected to take place at average levels. Local and regional procurement may be feasible particularly in Mali (millet and sorghum) and central and northwestern Nigeria (maize) and partially in North-west Ivory Coast.