Relatório de monitoria remota

A resumption of community-transmitted COVID-19 cases in the country

Decembrie 2020

Decembrie 2020 - Janeiro 2021

Fevereiro - Maio 2021

Fases de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda baseadas em IPC v3.0

1: Minima
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pior
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência
humanitária em vigor ou programad
A maneira de classificação que utiliza FEWS NET é compatível com a IPC. A análise compatível com a IPC segue os protocolos fundamentais da IPC mas não necessariamente reflete o consenso dos parceirosnacionais com respeito a segurança alimentar.
Para os países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza um contorno de cor no mapa IPC para representar a classificação mais alta da IPC nas áreas de preocupação.

Fases de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda baseadas em IPC v3.0

1: Minima
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Emergência
5: Fome
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência humanitária em vigor ou programad
A maneira de classificação que utiliza FEWS NET é compatível com a IPC. A análise compatível com a IPC segue os protocolos fundamentais da IPC mas não necessariamente reflete o consenso dos parceirosnacionais com respeito a segurança alimentar.

Fases de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda baseadas em IPC v3.0

1: Minima
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pior
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência
humanitária em vigor ou programad
A maneira de classificação que utiliza FEWS NET é compatível com a IPC. A análise compatível com a IPC segue os protocolos fundamentais da IPC mas não necessariamente reflete o consenso dos parceirosnacionais com respeito a segurança alimentar.
Para os países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza um contorno de cor no mapa IPC para representar a classificação mais alta da IPC nas áreas de preocupação.

Fases de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda baseadas em IPC v3.0

Países com presença:
1: Minima
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Emergência
5: Fome
Países sem presença:
1: Minima
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pior
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência
humanitária em vigor ou programad
Para os países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza um contorno de cor no mapa IPC para representar a classificação mais alta da IPC nas áreas de preocupação.

As mensagens-chave

  • The negative impacts of floods and Rift Valley fever, reduced remittances from migrants, and localized crop losses due to pests keep livelihoods under pressure, particularly in the wilayas of Gorgol, Brakna, and Tagant where the nutritional status is already a cause for concern. Poor households in these areas will be exposed to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity until May.

  • The economic slowdown resulting from the pandemic could also continue to have a negative impact on the incomes and purchasing power of the urban poor, especially those in the informal sector who rely on daily earnings. Their livelihoods will remain under pressure throughout the period. 

  • Despite the availability of above-average pastoral resources favoring a typical lean season, the resurgence of COVID-19 and the reported outbreaks of the Rift Valley fever could lead migratory herds’ usual destination countries (Mali and Senegal) to strengthen border surveillance to limit entry. Between March and June, livestock may concentrate in the southern areas and lead to more pressure on the available resources.

  • There is an average supply of basic foodstuffs to the markets, and the decrease in demand favors stable or even lower prices. Good prospects for dry season production could help strengthen the supply to the markets and allow for average seasonal price fluctuations. However, the decrease in imports particularly affects wheat stocks, leading to a slight increase in its price. Similarly, regional disruptions led to stock shortages last month for fruits and vegetables from Morocco. 

AREA

CURRENT ANOMALIES

PROJECTED ANOMALIES

National

The country recorded a decrease in cases of community transmission between late July and late October, which led to an easing of restrictions. However, there has been a resurgence of the disease since November, with daily cases occasionally exceeding the peak observed in June during the first wave. Deaths are also increasing.  Active cases increased from 119 to 3,428 between November 1 and December 20 and 118 additional deaths were recorded during the period, bringing the cumulative total to 281. For the time being, authorities are increasing awareness of following safety measures including mask-wearing, handwashing, and social distancing.

Despite a generally satisfactory agropastoral season, some areas of the country experienced shocks that undermine their livelihoods. These include floods in Aleg and Zighlane in the wilaya of Brakna, as well as in the rainfed area of Hodh Charghi, outbreaks of Rift Valley fever especially in the wilaya of Tagant, and crop losses of rice and vegetables due to predatory pests in both Hodh regions, Brakna, and Trarza, and along the river.

The concerning development of the pandemic will further slow down economic activities in the country and threaten jobs and incomes, particularly in the informal sector, hotels, restaurants, tourism, and transport. This could also lead to a lower demand for labor in urban centers and thus limit the seasonal migration remittances.

The availability of water and fodder is good in the agropastoral area except for some pockets of deficit in Brakna and in the northern parts of both Hodh regions, where the rains stopped early. This could encourage the typical departures of migratory herds. However, with the COVID-19 resurgence and risks associated with the Rift Valley fever, it is likely that destination countries (Mali and Senegal) will strengthen border surveillance as was the case during the past lean season. Livestock could therefore concentrate in the southern areas and put more pressure on the available resources.

PROJECTED OUTLOOK UNTIL MAY 2021

The agropastoral season was marked by a normal to early onset of rains and a normal to early end with normal to excess seasonal totals in 89 percent of the rain gauge stations compared to the 1981 to 2010 normal. The rainfed crops experienced good vegetative development and were able to complete their cycles in the wilayas of Hodh Chargui, Guidimagha, Gorgol, and the southern part of Hodh Gharbi. However, floods caused losses of sown and resown areas in the Aleg and Zighlane moughadaa in Brakna, as well as in the rainy area of Hodh Charghi. In addition, typical infestations and attacks by grasshoppers, rodents, and granivorous birds have negatively impacted rice and vegetable crop yields in both Hodh regions, Brakna, Trarza, and along the Senegal River.

Nevertheless, good rainfall distribution, the 45 percent government-subsidized input support, and an estimated 43 percent increase in irrigated crop development have favored above-average agricultural production in the country. The data forecast prepared by agricultural services indicate respective 24 percent and 36 percent production increases compared to the past season and the five-year average.

At the end of the rains in October, the filling level of surface water points (ponds, dams, wells) was satisfactory throughout the agropastoral area with good biomass availability, except for pockets of deficit recorded in Brakna and in the northern parts of both Hodh regions. This could encourage the typical departures of migratory herds. However, the Rift Valley fever caused the deaths of 138 head of livestock and infected 75 people, including 25 deaths in the wilayas of Tagant, Trarza, Brakna, and Assaba between September 4 and November 7. The Tagant wilaya was the most affected with 38 people infected, mainly in the localities of Tidjikja and Moudjeria, which impacts livestock movements because of the quarantine imposed by veterinary services. In addition, with the COVID-19 resurgence, it is likely that the migratory herds’ usual destination countries (Mali and Senegal) will strengthen border surveillance, which will limit entry into these countries, as was the case during the past lean season. Livestock could therefore concentrate in the southern areas and put more pressure on the available resources. 

There is an average supply of basic foodstuffs to the markets. Prices are stable for rice, oil, sugar, pasta, and tea compared to last year. On the other hand, wheat prices increased by 15 percent linked to a 9.9 percent decrease in the volume of food imports during the third quarter compared to the quantity imported in the previous quarter (National Office of Statistics [ONS], Quarterly Foreign Trade Report). In November, the temporary closure of the Morocco border following the conflict in the Western Sahara territory caused a fruit and vegetable shortage and higher prices on the markets, particularly in the capital city, Nouakchott. For local products, millet prices in December are stable compared to the same period last year in the markets of Ould Yengé and Adel Bagrou, and down 25 percent in Silibaby. Prices for small ruminants are also stable in the same markets, with, in particular, increases on the Ould Yengé market of 50 percent for sheep and 33 percent for goats. On the whole, the terms of trade for livestock and cereals are in favor of the breeders.

Private production allows most households to maintain acceptable food consumption according to the results of the October food security survey (WFP/Committee on World Food Security [CFS], Food Security Monitoring System [FSMS]). Good off-season production prospects could maintain this situation until May. However, livelihoods and consumption are under pressure, particularly in the wilayas of Gorgol, Brakna, and Tagant, and the nutritional status is of concern in these regions. The negative impacts of floods and Rift Valley fever, reduced remittances from migrants, and localized crop losses due to pests expose poor households in these areas to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity until May. The COVID-19 resurgence could restrict seasonal migration departures and lead to a lower demand for labor in urban centers. This continues to negatively affect incomes of the poor, particularly those in the agropastoral (MR07) and rainfed (MR09) areas, where 75 percent of income usually comes from self-employment and migration remittances.

In urban centers, where 16.7 percent of the population lives below the poverty line (ONS, Poverty Profile, 2014), the economic slowdown could also continue to negatively impact incomes and purchasing power, particularly for the poor in the informal sector who depend on daily earnings. They remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity throughout the period.

Acerca Del Monitoreo Remoto

Para el monitoreo remoto, típicamente un(a) coordinador(a) trabaja a través de la oficina regional más cercana. Con apoyo de datos de los socios, el(a) coordinador(a) utiliza el desarrollo de escenarios para llevar a cabo el análisis y producir los reportes mensuales. Es posible que los países de monitoreo remoto cuenten con menor información disponible y como consecuencia, los reportes tengan menos detalle que los países con presencia de FEWS NET. Para conocer más sobre nuestro trabajo, haga clic aqui.

About FEWS NET

A Rede de Sistemas de AlertaPrecoce de Fome é líder na provisão de alertas precoces e análises relativas à insegurança alimentar. Estabelecida em 1985 com o fim de auxiliar os responsáveis pela tomada de decisões a elaborar planos para crises humanitárias, a FEWS NET provê análises baseadas em evidências em cerca de 35 países. Entre os membros implementadores refere-se a NASA , NOAA, USDA e o USGS, assim como a Chemonics International Inc. e a Kimetrica. Leia mais sobre o nosso trabalho.

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