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With the below average rainy season production and the loss of productive assets due to pillaging and displacement, poor IDPs and host households in the north of the country are atypically dependent on markets. The national food security survey (ENISAN, October 2021) reveals that in the accessible areas of the provinces of Oudalan, Soum, Sanmatenga and Komandjoari, at least 50 percent of households spend more than 75 percent of their income on food expenses. Despite this, at least 20 percent of households are reducing the amount consumed and the number of meals. Larger consumption gaps are likely in inaccessible areas, particularly in Oudalan where IDPs and poor host households are exposed to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes.
Security incidents increased by about 70 percent in October compared to the monthly average since the start of the rainy season in June. Attacks on civilians and military bases continue and this month of November has been particularly deadly for the defense and security forces (FDS) and the Volunteers for the Defense of the Fatherland (VDP). All border regions are affected by threats from militant groups. These incidents force some populations to abandon their fields and negatively affect the internal flows of agricultural products.
In the most insecure provinces, between 32 and 65 percent of households that have been able to cultivate estimate that their stocks from own-production cannot exceed three months. Otherwise, they will be dependent on the markets as early as January. To anticipate the depletion of stocks and the rise in prices, households are atypically selling off livestock to build up preventive stocks of cereals. For example, in the Gorom-Gorom market, the supply of livestock, mainly from middle and better-off households, increased by 18 percent for small ruminants and 66 percent for cattle compared to the previous month.
Despite the ongoing harvests, the supply of agricultural products remains below average. Instead of a seasonal decline, prices for basic grains were broadly stable compared to the previous month. Slight increases were even observed in the markets of Bogandé, Haaba, Gayéri (East region), Titao (North region) and Kongoussi (Center-North region). Compared to the five-year average, prices nationally show increases of 38 percent for maize, 17 percent for sorghum and 12 percent for millet. Atypical variations exceeding 50 percent are observed in the markets of Haaba (in Komandjoari), Kelbo and Tongomayel (in Soum).
This Key Message Update provides a broad summary of FEWS NET's current and projected analysis of likely acute food insecurity outcomes in this geography. Learn more about our work here.