Previsão de Segurança Alimentar

Normal lean season is expected through September

Fevereiro 2016 to Setembro 2016

Fevereiro - Maio 2016

Burkina Faso February 2016 Food Security Projections for February to May

Junho - Setembro 2016

Burkina Faso February 2016 Food Security Projections for June to September

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda Baseado

1: Minima
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Emergência
5: Fome
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência humanitária em vigor ou programad
A maneira de classificação que utiliza FEWS NET é compatível com a CIF. A análise compatível com a CIF segue os protocolos fundamentais da CIF mas não necessariamente reflete o consenso dos parceirosnacionais com respeito a segurança alimentar.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda Baseado

1: Minima
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Emergência
5: Fome
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência humanitária em vigor ou programad
A maneira de classificação que utiliza FEWS NET é compatível com a CIF. A análise compatível com a CIF segue os protocolos fundamentais da CIF mas não necessariamente reflete o consenso dos parceirosnacionais com respeito a segurança alimentar.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda Baseado

1: Minima
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pior
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência
humanitária em vigor ou programad
A maneira de classificação que utiliza FEWS NET é compatível com a CIF. A análise compatível com a CIF segue os protocolos fundamentais da CIF mas não necessariamente reflete o consenso dos parceirosnacionais com respeito a segurança alimentar.
Para os países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza um contorno de cor no mapa CIF para representar a classificação mais alta da CIF nas áreas de preocupação.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda Baseado

Países com presença:
1: Minima
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Emergência
5: Fome
Países sem presença:
1: Minima
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pior
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência
humanitária em vigor ou programad
Para os países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza um contorno de cor no mapa CIF para representar a classificação mais alta da CIF nas áreas de preocupação.

As mensagens-chave

  • Near-average crop production across the country, adequate food availability on markets, and generally stable cereal prices are providing most rural households with normal food access for this time of year. These households will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity between February and September 2016. 

  • The main sources of income for poor households are gold mining and market gardening activities, sales of small ruminants, and non-agricultural wage labor, which are generating near-normal levels of income.

  • Demand on livestock markets has slowed since last year. The smaller volume of livestock exports to Ghana and Nigeria with the lower exchange rates for the Naira and Cedi against the CFA Franc will cause livestock prices to fall and reduce the expected positive effects of the demand for animals during Tabaski in September. 

  • Most surface watering points in the far northern areas of the country are dry and pasture availability is low, with reports of seasonal migration by transhumant herds towards the border with Mali. After two years with worse than normal lean seasons, the outlook for this year’s lean season for pastoral populations suggests it will be only slightly harsher than usual between June and September, when certain very poor households will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes. However, the number of households will not exceed the 20 percent threshold required to classify an entire area in this phase. 

     

National Overview

Current Situation

After near-average crop production (Figure 1), the ongoing post-harvest period is devoted mainly to the marketing of cash crops such as sesame, shea nuts, peanuts, and cowpeas, as well as market garden crops, for which market supply is high at this time. There is currently atypically low household demand on markets for cereals, and large-scale producers have not yet started selling cereals on markets.

There are initial signs of increase of cross-border trade in crops, which had slowed over the last six months, particularly for imports of wheat and rice and exports of oilseeds to ports in the coastal states. However, the depreciation in the exchange rates for the Ghanaian (Cedi) and Nigerian (Naira) currencies against the CFA Franc, has sharply reduced the volume of commercial exports of livestock and certain crops (tomatoes and onions) to these countries. This has driven livestock prices, particularly prices for cattle, and for market garden produce below the seasonal average by approximately 15 to 20 percent and 30 to 50 percent, respectively. Prices for small ruminants (male sheep and male goats) are still at or above the five-year average, allowing pastoralists to profit from good terms of trade for livestock/cereals.

In general, staple cereal prices are near the five-year average. However, prices on the Solenzo market (in a crop-producing area) are 13 to 18 percent below-average due to unusually high market supply and low demand for this time of year. On the other hand, maize prices on the Léo market are 20 percent above the five-year average, fueled by the strong demand from Ghana this year. Millet prices are below the five-year average by 13 percent in Sankaryaré (the capital), eight percent in Pouytenga, and seven percent in Gorom-Gorom, but are nine percent above average in Dori.

On the whole, grazing and watering conditions for livestock are satisfactory, with an average availability of pasture and animal watering holes. However, there have been reports of transhumant herd movements towards the Malian border in the far northern areas of the country, particularly in Oudalan, Séno, and Soum provinces, driven by the premature drying up of certain water sources and the limited availability of natural pasture in range areas.

Food consumption by rural households is at normal levels for this time of year, with households eating at least two meals a day. At present, own-produced foods account for most household food consumption and households resorting to very few food purchases on local markets. Moreover, the abundance and variety of market garden crops are improving their diets. However, most poor households in the communes of Déou, Oursi, and Tin-Akoff in the Sahelian region, or approximately 25,600 people, are highly dependent on market purchases for their food supplies, where household cereal production has been severely affected by crop pests (locusts and birds). This region has a population of close to 32,000 refugees, who are receiving food assistance from the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (the UNHCR) and its partners.

The government-subsidized sales program for cereals mounted in 2015 to help households cope with the erosion in their purchasing power and the rising price of cereals has been suspended since December 2015. So far, no new social programs have started up, with any ongoing operations limited to traditional assistance programs conducted by the country’s partners.

Assumptions

The most likely food security scenario for February through September 2016 is based on the following general assumptions:

  • A near-average rainy season: The rainy season start as normal at the end of May in the south and by the middle of July in the north, and is expected to produce near to above-average levels of rainfall (Figure 2). Accordingly, agricultural activities across the country will proceed normally.
  • Average staple cereal prices: The normal progress of the rainy season will spur the marketing of staple food stocks in crop-producing areas, helping to ensure normal market supply. There will be a normal demand for food crops, movements in staple cereal prices will follow normal seasonal trends, and price levels will stay close to the five-year average.
  • Average incomes: The main sources of income for poor households during the outlook period will be gold mining and market gardening activities, sales of livestock, and wage labor. The price of a gram of gold (between 22,000 and 25,000 CFAF) and wage rates for farm labor will stay close to the three-year average. However, with the slowing of foreign demand, prices for market garden crops and livestock could stay below the five-year average through the end of the growing season for these crops in April-May. Prices for livestock, which are closely correlated with demand from Ghana and Nigeria, will stay at or below the five-year average, before starting to improve, driven by demand at the end of Ramadan (in June) and during Tabaski (in September).
  • Normal grazing and watering conditions for livestock: In general, with the availability of pasture and water, there should be a normal lean season for livestock between April and June. The normal start of the rainy season will help spur the usual new pasture growth as of July. However, there will be a harsh lean season in pastoral areas in the far northern areas of the country with the premature drying up of watering holes and limited supply of natural pasture in these areas. This could result in excess mortality of cattle and sheep in the Sahelian region in general and in the communes of Déou, Oursi, and Tin-Akoff in particular, as was the case in 2015.

Most likely food security outcomes

Except in the far northern areas of the country, the lean season will be normal this year for most poor households, with favorable conditions for the generation of normal (average to slightly above-average) levels of income and stable prices facilitating their staple food access. In addition, food supplies will be bolstered by dry season crops through the month of April. Moreover, a normal start-of-season will help ensure the availability of wild plant foods, milk, and harvests of green maize crops as of September. Thus, there will be normal household food access for that time of year. In the absence of any shock, poor households will be able to meet their normal consumption needs without jeopardizing their livelihoods and, thus, will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity for the entire outlook period. In the far nochemonirthern areas of the country, after two years with harsher than usual lean seasons, the outlook for this year’s lean season for pastoral populations suggests it will be slightly harsher than usual between June and September, when certain very poor households will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes. However, their numbers will not exceed the 20 percent threshold required to classify an entire area in this phase.

Events That Could Change The Outlook

Area

Event

Impact on food security conditions

National

Deterioration in the security situation across the country

An escalation in attacks by armed groups could interfere with the normal operation of humanitarian programs and disrupt markets. This could lead to shortages in certain locations, which would drive staple food prices above the five-year average. Likewise, the lack of buyers on livestock markets will cause sales of animals to decline and further degrade terms of trade for livestock/cereals, to the detriment of pastoral households.

Flooding

Localized flooding from increasingly frequent torrential downpours could heighten food insecurity and malnutrition risks and lead to losses of household assets.

Sobre O Desenvolvimento Do Cenários

Para projectar as condições de segurança alimentar ao longo de um período de seis meses, a FEWS NET desenvolve um conjunto de pressupostos sobre eventos prováveis, seus efeitos e as respostas prováveis de diversos actores. A FEWS NET analisa esses pressupostos, no contexto das condições actuais e formas de vida locais para desenvolver cenários estimando as condições de segurança alimentar. Normalmente, a FEWS NET reporta o cenário mais provável. Para saber mais, clique aqui.

About FEWS NET

A Rede de Sistemas de AlertaPrecoce de Fome é líder na provisão de alertas precoces e análises relativas à insegurança alimentar. Estabelecida em 1985 com o fim de auxiliar os responsáveis pela tomada de decisões a elaborar planos para crises humanitárias, a FEWS NET provê análises baseadas em evidências em cerca de 35 países. Entre os membros implementadores refere-se a NASA , NOAA, USDA e o USGS, assim como a Chemonics International Inc. e a Kimetrica. Leia mais sobre o nosso trabalho.

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