Previsão de Segurança Alimentar

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) expected in central and southern Malawi until the harvest is available in April

Fevereiro 2023 to Setembro 2023

Fevereiro - Maio 2023

Junho - Setembro 2023

Fases de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda baseadas em IPC v3.1

1: Minima
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Emergência
5: Fome
Parques e reservas
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência humanitária em vigor ou programad
A maneira de classificação que utiliza FEWS NET é compatível com a IPC. A análise compatível com a IPC segue os protocolos fundamentais da IPC mas não necessariamente reflete o consenso dos parceirosnacionais com respeito a segurança alimentar.

Fases de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda baseadas em IPC v3.1

1: Minima
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Emergência
5: Fome
Parques e reservas
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência humanitária em vigor ou programad
A maneira de classificação que utiliza FEWS NET é compatível com a IPC. A análise compatível com a IPC segue os protocolos fundamentais da IPC mas não necessariamente reflete o consenso dos parceirosnacionais com respeito a segurança alimentar.

Fases de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda baseadas em IPC v3.1

1: Minima
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pior
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência
humanitária em vigor ou programad
A maneira de classificação que utiliza FEWS NET é compatível com a IPC. A análise compatível com a IPC segue os protocolos fundamentais da IPC mas não necessariamente reflete o consenso dos parceirosnacionais com respeito a segurança alimentar.
Para os países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza um contorno de cor no mapa IPC para representar a classificação mais alta da IPC nas áreas de preocupação.

Fases de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda baseadas em IPC v3.1

Países com presença:
1: Minima
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Emergência
5: Fome
Parques e reservas
Países sem presença:
1: Minima
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pior
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência
humanitária em vigor ou programad
Para os países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza um contorno de cor no mapa IPC para representar a classificação mais alta da IPC nas áreas de preocupação.

As mensagens-chave

  • Crop production deficits in southern and central Malawi in 2022, coupled with high prices for food and basic non-food commodities due to global and domestic economic factors, remain key drivers of acute food insecurity. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in parts of southern and central Malawi, as well as in the Karonga district of northern Malawi, until the harvest begins in April. Although humanitarian food assistance is being delivered to these areas during the lean season, the scale of the humanitarian response is being outpaced by the scale of need resulting from crop and labor income losses during the 2021/22 production year and currently high food prices. In parts of the far south where humanitarian food assistance is more significant, however, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are likely. After the harvest becomes available in April, most areas of concern will see improvement to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1). In areas with near-normal crop production in 2022 and 2023, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected throughout the scenario period.

  • Limited and delayed access to subsidized fertilizer for most subsistence farmers is expected to cause slight reductions in crop production. Reports and field assessments in January 2023 indicate very low rates of fertilizer use during the window for timely application in the 21 days after planting. However, fertilizer usage is typically low among very poor and poor households. According to government and USDA estimates as of February, the main maize harvest is still expected to be near average.

  • The prices of most food commodities, including maize, are expected to remain high through September, including during the harvest and post-harvest periods, due to high agricultural input prices and high fuel and transportation costs. While the impact on household access to food will be relatively lower during the harvest period, high staple food prices will continue to suppress household purchasing power, particularly among poor households who are typically more market dependent. In FEWS NET monitored markets, maize prices in February were 214 percent higher than the same time last year and 195 percent above the five-year average. FEWS NET projects maize prices will trend at over 120 percent above the five-year average through September.

  • According to global and local rainfall forecast models, above-average rainfall is likely from January to March 2023 across much of southern Africa, including southern Malawi. After a slow start of the rainy season, the heavier rains are generally expected to compensate for earlier moisture deficits, supporting favorable harvests and increased food availability in much of the country. At the time that this report was written, Malawi had yet to experience any extreme weather events during the course of the rainy season. However, Cyclone Freddy passed through southern Malawi from March 12 to 15, 2023, resulting in severe floods and landslides. While this report does not incorporate the impacts of the cyclone, FEWS NET will release an updated analysis of Malawi’s food security outlook in April.

NATIONAL OVERVIEW

Current Situation

Rainfall and crop production: Below-average rainfall from October to December 2022 delayed planting for most farmers. However, average to above-average rainfall since January 2023 has compensated for these earlier deficits, recharging water bodies and aiding crop establishment, although sporadic localized flooding has caused some damage to cropped land in the Lower Shire livelihood zone in southern Malawi. Good rainfall performance is expected to continue up to the end of the season in March/April 2023.

While rainfall performance projections favor an average crop production season, limited access to fertilizers is likely to slightly reduce yields. Prices for commercial fertilizers have almost quadrupled from last year and subsidized fertilizer prices through the government-subsidized Affordable Input Program (AIP) have doubled compared to last season. Additionally, the number of AIP beneficiaries has dropped from 3.7 million in the 2021/22 agricultural season to 2.5 million in the current agricultural season, mainly due to high import prices and shortages of fertilizer on the global market. As of mid-January 2023, only 30 percent of the beneficiaries had reportedly accessed inputs for the planting season. During FEWS NET field assessments in January 2023, crop development was reasonably good, but some crops had started yellowing due to lack of fertilizer application. However, it is also important to note that very poor and poor households tend to apply very little fertilizer. Using Malawi HEA Baseline information for a high maize production area, Livelihood Zone 03 (Kasunga Liongwe Plain), poor households spend around 8,700 MWK (8.29 USD) on fertilizer annually, while middle and better-off households spend 70,000 MWK (66.73 USD) and 114,110 MWL (108.78 USD), in comparison. Relatedly, very poor and poor households produce around 735 to 925 kg of maize annually while earning most of their income from agricultural labor. Given the relatively low fertilizer use and high dependence on agricultural labor among very poor and poor households, the delays of AIP are likely to result in better-off families planting less, which could reduce income opportunities for poor households. However, low access to fertilizer may have incentivized some farmers to shift their production to crops that require little or no fertilizer, such as pulses or groundnuts.

National food stocks: Malawi continues to have average to above-average food stocks to meet market demand, particularly for maize grain, which is supported by substantial carryover stocks from near-average production of maize in the 2021/22 production year. These food stocks include 169,073 metric tons held by government institutions, namely the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) and the Agriculture Development and Marketing Corporation (ADMARC). Government institutions have committed to holding about 24,388 metric tons of maize stocks for humanitarian food assistance.

While availability of stocks on the market is normal, crop production in southern Malawi was below average in the 2021/22 production year due to damage from tropical cyclones Ana and Gombe. As a result, most households in southern Malawi have depleted their own-produced food stocks and are relying on market purchases, mainly from private traders.

ADMARC typically plays a critical role in stabilizing staple food prices by purchasing and then strategically selling food at more affordable prices. However, ADMARC had little impact on the maize market throughout the 2022/23 consumption season due to the institutional challenges it is facing, leading to the closure of most outlet markets at the time of peak maize demand. The absence of ADMARC on the maize market has contributed to elevated maize prices among private traders, with prices rising above 500 MWK/kg as compared to the 300 MWK/kg that ADMARC set for its maize.

Malawi has atypically exported more maize, mainly into Tanzania, than it has informally imported from Mozambique and Zambia. In the period of April to December 2022, Malawi imported about 26,000 MT of maize against exports of about 121,000 MT, translating into net exports of 95,000 MT of maize grain. The higher-than-normal informal exports are driven by higher maize prices in Tanzania, which is supplying East African neighbors such as Kenya, which is affected by a severe drought that has diminished its own production and increased demand for imports.

Macroeconomic conditions: The country’s economic conditions remain unfavorable, with the Reserve Bank of Malawi reporting that foreign exchange shortages are contributing to high prices for imported goods and putting upward pressure on inflation. High prices of domestic and imported food and non-food commodities remain the driving factor for high inflation. According to the National Statistics Office (NSO), the inflation rate (year on year) stands at 21 percent for December 2022 and 26 percent for November 2022, while the month-to-month inflation rate for December 2022 stands at 2.6 percent. The food inflation rate for December 2022 is at 3.4 percent, while the non-food inflation rate is 1.6 percent.

Maize prices: The month-to-month maize grain prices between December 2022 and January 2023 were stable in three monitored markets and registered increases in nine markets, with the highest increases in Balaka (13 percent), Nsanje (17 percent), and Mangochi (23 percent) districts in southern Malawi. The national average price is 495 MWK /kg, with the highest registered prices at Nsanje at 573 MWK /kg, and the lowest prices at the Lilongwe market at 300 MWK/kg. Additionally, in January, WFP reported a month-on-month increase in the standard minimum expenditure basket for urban households, while the Centre for Social Concern indicated that the urban cost of living in Lilongwe and Blantyre rose from 235,584 MWK to 328,522 per month from January to December 2022, representing around 40 percent increase in one year. The main drivers of the high maize prices remain macroeconomic factors due to global challenges of high fuel, fertilizer, and food prices and supply disruptions due to the Russia-Ukraine war. Moreover, below-average production in the south, high inflation, and the absence of subsidized maize sales by the state-run ADMARC markets are also contributing to increased food prices. High prices in northern Malawi are also being driven by higher prices across the border in Tanzania, where most informal maize exports are taking place through Karonga and Chitipa districts.

Cholera outbreak: Cholera outbreak has continued to affect many households in rural and urban areas. The Ministry of Health (MoH) declared cholera as an epidemic in March 2022 and stepped up its efforts to control the spread of the disease. In a typical year, the prevalence of the disease in the lowlands and areas closer to water bodies is common; since 2022, however, most parts of the country have reported cholera cases. As of February 2023, the MoH had confirmed 49,965 cholera cases across all 28 districts of the country, with 1,578 deaths at a death rate of 3.16 percent. As a control measure, district and town councils have, at times, partially closed markets, limited livestock trade, and shut down food vendor locations. This has periodically affected poor and very poor households who rely on incomes from casual labor and petty trading, especially those who sell cooked food.

Acute malnutrition: The last SMART survey of malnutrition levels was conducted in Malawi in November/December 2020. Historically, global acute malnutrition (GAM) levels are in the Acceptable (≤5 percent) range. However, nutrition data from the Malawi Community-Based Management of Acute Malnutrition (CMAM) surveillance system for December 2022 shows that Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) admissions in 2022 increased by 10 percent as compared to 2021, while Moderate Acute Malnutrition (MAM) is reported to have increased by 73 percent as compared to levels in 2021. The increase in SAM and MAM admission cases are likely linked to both the ongoing cholera outbreak and atypically low food intake during the 2022 lean season, particularly in central and southern Malawi.

Humanitarian assistance: A population of 3.8 million people across all districts were identified as food insecure in 2022 by the Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (MVAC) assessment. Available assistance distribution information suggests up to 3.8 million people are currently receiving humanitarian food assistance in the form of cash or in-kind transfers for a period ranging from three to five months (November 2022 to March 2023), which is approximately 15-20 percent of the national population of Malawi. However, levels of assistance only meet the IPC 3.1 thresholds for significant levels of assistance (reaching at least 25 percent of the population with at least 25 percent of their monthly kilocalorie needs) in six districts out of Malawi’s 28 districts. Recipients receive cash or maize transfers covering a 50-kilogram monthly maize ration, which is equivalent to 65 percent of the caloric needs for a household.

Current Food Security Outcomes

Based on the convergence of evidence, including a February 2023 FEWS NET Outcome Analysis using the Household Economy Approach (HEA), the national population in need of food assistance in February – during the peak of the lean season – is significantly higher than the previous year. The main driver for this increase is the atypically high maize prices that range from 400 MWK to more than 700 MWK per kilogram, coupled with the increased need to purchase food among poor households that experienced significant crop production losses in 2022. The high food price was also influenced by high fuel, increased transportation costs and global supply chain disruptions due to the Russia-Ukraine war. FEWS NET assessments showed that most households are prioritizing food purchases above any other expenditures, due to higher food prices and spending less money on non-food items. In November 2022, WFP also reported a month-on-month increase in the minimum expenditure basket for rural households, reflecting the overall increase in cost of living for households. While agricultural labor wage rates are above average, opportunities have been hampered by low employment opportunities from better-off households due to worsening economic challenges. Furthermore, the increase in wage labor is not keeping up with the increase in staple maize prices, leading to lower purchasing power for very poor households that mostly rely on the markets. Households are, therefore, largely dependent on self-employment activities, such as firewood and charcoal sales that are facing significant challenges due to government restrictions on forest exploitation. This leads to lower access to income from self-employment activities and an increasing number of people likely to face food consumption gaps.

The current area food security classification outcomes across districts in southern Malawi range from Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) with significant levels of humanitarian food assistance preventing worse outcomes in six districts (Blantyre, Chikawawa, Mwanza, Neno, Nsanje, and Mulanje) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in districts where humanitarian assistance is covering less than 25 percent of the population (Zomba, Machinga, Mangochi, Balaka, Thyolo and Chiradzulu). In central Malawi, most districts are registering Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes; however, a few areas are likely facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, including districts such as Ntcheu, Salima, Lilongwe, and Nkhotakota. Finally, most of northern Malawi is registering Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes, but some parts of Karonga district registering Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

Assumptions

The most likely scenario from February to September 2023 is based on the following national-level assumptions:

  • Rainfall: Based on global forecast models and forecast climate modes, above-average rainfall is most likely across much of southern Africa, including southern Malawi, in the January to March 2023 period. With a delayed and erratic start to the rainy season in the October to December 2022 period, overall rainfall amounts for the 2022/23 season will be about average. However, there is a likelihood of episodic, extreme weather events such as mid-season dry spells and flash-flooding in flood-prone areas, along with regionalized flooding if widespread torrential rainfall occurs. According to CHIRPS accumulation to date and NMME dynamical forecasts, northern and southern Malawi are likely to experience near-normal rainfall accumulations through May 2023. This is in agreement with the latest government-issued weather bulletin, according to which overall rainfall was normal to above-normal in most areas of the country from October 2022 to 10 January 2023, with pockets of below-normal rainfall in all three regions.
  • Access to inputs: Access to inputs throughout the season will remain lower than normal. Prices for commercial fertilizers have almost quadrupled from last year to the current production season due to worsening economic conditions. Subsidized fertilizer prices through the government-implemented AIP program have doubled from last season. Furthermore, the government reduced the number of beneficiaries in the subsidy program from around 3.7 million in the previous agricultural season to about 2.5 million farmers this season, due to dwindling resources and very high prices of inputs. This will affect production of maize and tobacco as farmers start switching maize production to pulses, which require little or no fertilizer, and farms experience low yields due to lack of fertilizer or delayed or insufficient application.
  • Crop production is likely to be below average, especially for maize. The erratic rainfall during the start of the season and reduced access to inputs, especially for the very poor and poor rural farmers, is expected to result in reduced yields and production totals. The government has cut the number of subsidized input beneficiaries from 3.7 million in the previous year to around 2.5 million this year. Additionally, as of mid-January 2023, only 30 percent of the beneficiaries had reportedly accessed inputs for the planting season, way past the window period for fertilizer application. The First Round Agriculture Production Estimates (APES) led by the Ministry of Agriculture and government ministry offices suggest that maize production will be about four percent below last year’s production and two percent below the five-year average. However, due to low fertilizer access, the production estimates may be revised downward in subsequent assessments.
  • Income from crop sales and agricultural labor: Income from crop sales is expected to be average across wealth groups, supported by a relatively good production season. However, based on recent field assessments, especially in southern Malawi, FEWS NET expects that agricultural labor and non-agricultural labor opportunities among very poor and poor households will be lower between January and May due to reduced incomes for middle and better-off households, which typically hire members of poorer households. A key factor affecting agricultural labor availability and wages is the reduced access to seeds and fertilizers, which will limit agricultural activities.
  • Other income sources: Self-employment opportunities among very poor and poor households in rural areas, including charcoal, firewood, and handicraft sales, are also expected to be available as usual. However, income levels from these various opportunities will likely be lower as the competition to earn income from similar activities increases, particularly given the impact of reduced agricultural labor income and high food prices on household purchasing power. Meanwhile, in urban areas, incomes for poor households are expected to be near average, but the purchasing power for urban households will continue to decrease due to the high prices of commodities, including food and basic non-food items. According to the Employers Consultative Association, the cost of living for urban households rose by about 41 percent from September 2021 to September 2022, a similar trend that is expected to continue based on expectations for atypically high inflation in 2023.
  • Maize stocks: National maize supplies will likely remain average to above average at the national level, based on expected near-average harvests in April/May, coupled with some carry-over stocks from the 2022 production year. During FEWS NET field assessments in key markets across the country, many farmers, especially in central and northern Malawi, reported adequate amounts of maize grain to satisfy needs. The assessments also found that traders have adequate maize stocks to supply markets until the next harvest.
  • Maize imports: Malawi will continue registering reduced net maize imports through formal and informal cross-border trading. FEWS NET data has shown that from April to December, Malawi exported 120,890 MT against imports of 26,013, leaving it with negative net imports of 94,877 MT. Most maize exports went into Tanzania through northern borders, while most of the maize imports are from Mozambique and Zambia through central and southern Malawi border points. While this may not have a huge impact on overall national maize supplies, increased informal maize exports are exerting upward pressure on maize prices, especially in northern Malawi.
  • Inflation: Malawi’s headline inflation rate will likely remain high through the outlook period, driven by foreign exchange shortages and increased input costs. Prices of food, non-food commodities and other services are expected to remain atypically high, as further depreciation of the MWK will continue to increase the cost of imports. The balance of payments crisis is expected to deepen, as overall economic growth is forecast to be below the regional average for 2023 (World Bank). Malawi’s year-on-year inflation was 21 percent in 2022, compared to 9.3 percent in 2021 (Malawi National Statistics Office). The main drivers for the prevailing high inflation are the depreciation of the local currency since its devaluation in May 2022, high global fuel prices, low foreign currency reserves, and global supply chain disruptions due to the Russia-Ukraine war.
  • Maize prices: According to FEWS NET price projections, prices for maize will continue to increase, remaining atypically high until March, when prices will start to seasonally decrease as the country moves toward the next harvest period. However, prices will remain around or above 300 MWK per kg during the harvest period before registering increases from July 2023, likely exceeding 400 MWK/kg by September, which is atypically high. Maize prices in January averaged 495 MWK/kg with prices in February reaching as high as 760 MWK/kg, which may be the country’s highest recorded in history. The weaker MWK against USD is a key driver of elevated maize prices, and further depreciation is expected to increase the inflation rate due to the increased costs of imports. Additionally, maize prices are elevated due to reduced production in the south, high input costs, and the absence of subsidized maize sales by the state-run ADMARC markets. High prices in northern Malawi are also being driven by prices across the border in Tanzania, where most informal maize exports are taking place through the Karonga and Chitipa districts.
  • Humanitarian food assistance: According to available information on humanitarian assistance plans, WFP and partners are expected to continue to deliver food assistance to up to 3.8 million people (identified per the 2022 MVAC assessment) through March 2023. The humanitarian response is expected to scale down after March, coinciding with the availability of the main season harvest in April. Food assistance is not likely to be delivered between April and September.
  • Cholera outbreak: The ongoing cholera epidemic is expected to remain a serious public health threat among both urban and rural populations in Malawi. Cholera, which is endemic but normally localized in low-lying and lakeshore areas but is also prevalent during the rainy season, has been affecting populations across all parts of the country, even in the dry season, since early 2022. As a result, cholera cases are expected to remain elevated even after the end of the rainy season in March. A high prevalence of cholera will likely contribute to elevated morbidity and acute malnutrition levels, especially among children. The impacts on food security and livelihoods are expected to be felt among households who earn income through livestock and food vendor stands, which have been targeted by government control measures.
  • Acute malnutrition: Acute malnutrition levels in children under five years of age will likely be within Acceptable levels (Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) ≤5 percent) in both projection periods, according to WHO thresholds. Historical trends from 2018 to 2020 (when the last SMART survey was carried out) show that, overall, GAM levels have typically not exceeded five percent, with rates in the past three years recorded at less than two percent. However, elevated levels may be observed within this range. Current nutrition data from the Malawi Community-Based Management of Acute Malnutrition (CMAM) shows that severe acute malnutrition (SAM) admissions in 2022 increased by 10 percent as compared to 2021, while moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) admissions are reported to have increased by 73 percent, as compared to levels in 2021. The recent increase in SAM and MAM admissions is likely to be somewhat alleviated as the harvest become available in April, but still influenced by the ongoing cholera epidemic.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

The occurrence of frequent tropical storms in 2022, coupled with erratic rainfall in southern Malawi, contributed to reduced production of maize in Central and Southern Malawi during the 2022/2023 harvest. The loss of this key source of food and income, coupled with persistently high prices for staple food and essential non-food items that limit household purchasing power and access to food, will continue to drive Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes until the start of the next harvest in April. In March, up to 3.8 million people are expected to receive humanitarian assistance that will mitigate the size of their food consumption gaps; in six districts, the level of assistance is expected to be high enough to prevent worse outcomes, indicative of Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!). The ongoing humanitarian assistance has protected the poor and very poor households from applying negative coping mechanisms like selling of their fixed assets, farm equipment, and migrations.

Food availability and access will start to improve after the harvest begins in April/May. At this time, very poor and poor households are expected to move from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. Farmers will be able to gradually improve their consumption of own-produced food, while increasing the amount of income earned through agricultural labor and/or by selling part of their own-produced crops. At the same time, market reliance will start to decline in April and remain low through September, as most households will be able to consume their own harvests from the 2022/2023 production season and/or be able to trade their stocks for other preferred foods. Overall, very poor and poor households will be able to increase the number of meals consumed per day, as well as the dietary diversity and size of the meals.

During the June to September period, the harvest will conclude. During this period, households across all wealth groups will be accessing food from their own production and incomes from crop sales, in addition to other typical sources of income, including off-farm labor and self-employment activities. Due to better food availability and access, most households in southern Malawi expected to see improvement to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes, which they are able to meet their minimum kilocalorie needs. Meanwhile, most households in central and northern Malawi will likely experience Minimal/None (IPC Phase 1) food security outcomes. However, some very poor and poor households who rapidly sell off their food stocks to repay loans or experienced localized poor production are likely to face in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, though the share of the population is expected to be less than 20 percent. These areas of concern include the Lower Shire Livelihood zone and Lake Chilwa and Phalombe Plain Livelihood zones.

Events that Might Change the Outlook

Table 1. Possible events over the next eight months that could change the most-likely scenario.

Area

Event

Impact on food security outcomes

National

 

Heavy rain and flooding resulting from a cyclone

The 2022/23 season has seen above-average rainfall starting in January, with some areas having already experienced stormy rains that have damaged crops and infrastructure. With cyclone activities forecast in the Indian Ocean over the coming months, stormy rains and flooding may lead to crop damage and reduced production, loss of assets, and displacement. A cyclone event would likely increase the share of the population in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), particularly in flood-prone areas in southern Malawi.

Early cessation of rains

 

In a typical year, Malawi’s rainy season starts around October to April each year. With a delayed start of the season, some late planted crops would require a longer rainfall season or causes increasing green harvests/consumptions. Early cessation of rains would lead to premature drying of crops, thereby decreasing crop yields and leading to a decline in household food and income from crop production. This would most likely lead to an increase in the share of the population that is Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in some livelihood zones in Northern and Central Malawi. 

Further inflation or devaluation of the Malawi Kwacha (MWK)

The devaluation and floating of the Malawi Kwacha (MWK) in May 2022 have continued to have negative impacts on market and trade conditions. This has led to high prices both for imported goods and for locally produced food and non-food commodities. Depreciation has also led to increases in import costs of critical goods such as fuel and fertilizer. Malawi has already experienced fuel and fertilizer shortages. Further depreciation or devaluation of the currency could lead to more price increases and scarcity, which would negatively impact food security and livelihoods of households across all wealth groups, leading to increased number of people facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Crisis (ICP Phase 3) outcomes in parts of southern Malawi.

Implementation of more stringent restrictions to control the cholera epidemic

While the persistence of the cholera epidemic is already included in the most likely scenario, a worse-than-anticipated escalation in the spread of cholera may prompt the government of Malawi to take more significant measures to control the spread of the disease. If the government takes steps to further restrict the sale of food commodities and/or closure markets in an effort to limit water and food contamination for a prolonged period, the impact could lead to an increase in the number of households that face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, particularly among households that depend on food and income from food sales and trade.

For more information on the outlook for specific areas of concern, please click the download button at the top of the page for the full report.    

 

 

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About FEWS NET

A Rede de Sistemas de AlertaPrecoce de Fome é líder na provisão de alertas precoces e análises relativas à insegurança alimentar. Estabelecida em 1985 com o fim de auxiliar os responsáveis pela tomada de decisões a elaborar planos para crises humanitárias, a FEWS NET provê análises baseadas em evidências em cerca de 35 países. Entre os membros implementadores refere-se a NASA , NOAA, USDA e o USGS, assim como a Chemonics International Inc. e a Kimetrica. Leia mais sobre o nosso trabalho.

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