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Madagascar

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Madagascar
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Food Security Outlook
February - September 2024
Anticipated below-average harvests to support sufficient food access through September 2024
  • In the Grand South, the rainy season was generally on time to slightly late, with below-average accumulation in Atsimo-Andrefana and parts of Androy, with most areas receiving 60 to 90 percent of average rainfall. The main harvest between mid-March and April is approaching. Maize production in the Grand South is expected to be below average, while sorghum and sweet potato harvests are anticipated to be near average. Below-average cassava production is expected in Androy and Atsimo-Andrefana due to forecasted poor soil moisture. Ongoing green harvesting of immature maize crops in the Grand South by households trying to mitigate their consumption gaps is also expected to impact yields negatively. In the Grand Southeast, rainfall was slightly early or on time. As of February 22, cumulative precipitation was average to above average in the Grand Southeast and Anosy. Harvests of maize, rice, sweet potato, and cassava crops are expected to be average in the Grand Southeast due to good rainfall performance during the 2023/24 season. 
  • In the Grand South, the lean season is at its peak, and several districts are likely experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. For many households, cassava and other staple crop stocks have been depleted since November. Households must purchase most of their food at markets with below-average agricultural incomes while prices are at seasonal peaks. The main harvest occurring in April is expected to improve household food access and replenish stocks, resulting in improvements to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. While maize harvests starting in mid-March are expected to be below average in Androy and Atsimo-Andrefana, cassava is the most important crop in these zones and requires significantly less water than maize. Most households across the Grand South will be able to meet their minimum kilocalorie needs through September 2024 through harvests of sorghum, sweet potatoes, and cassava. However, many households will likely struggle to meet their essential non-food needs due to the need to service debts accrued during the most recent lean season and during the historic drought that ended in late 2022. 
  • In the Grand Southeast, it is also the peak of the lean season. In the isolated, landlocked districts of Ikongo, Befotaka, and inland Nosy Varika, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely ongoing. For poor households, limited stocks of off-season rice have now been exhausted, and they must purchase most of their food at seasonally high prices. Supply flows have been disrupted and are irregular, unpredictable, and below average due to seasonally deteriorated road conditions. As a result, prices in these remote areas are even higher. Due to the limited hiring capacity of better-off households unable to afford wages after successive years of weather shocks, incomes from agricultural labor and cash crop production remain below average. The arrival of the main season sweet potato and maize harvest in April and the rice harvest in mid-May, which are expected to be average, is likely to improve and maintain outcomes in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through September 2024. Several districts with better market access and more diverse food and income sources will likely be able to maintain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes throughout the scenario period. 
  • Significant humanitarian food and cash distributions will continue in the Grand South until March 2024 and are improving outcomes to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) in the following areas: Amboasary (MG24 and MG26 only), Beloha, Tshihombe, Bekily (MG22 only), and Ampanihy (MG22 only). At least 25 percent of the population in these areas will be able to meet at least 50 percent of their kilocalorie needs through humanitarian assistance. Several organizations, including WFP and FAO, are also implementing livelihoods and resilience interventions. 
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View All Madagascar Analysis
Food Security
Key Message Update Crop maturation phase arrives amidst below-average and erratic rainfall Madagascar January 2024
Food Security Outlook Update Scale-up of food aid expected to alleviate food insecurity during the lean season Madagascar December 2023
Key Message Update Humanitarian assistance resumes but is insufficient to avert Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in the Grand South and Grand Southeast Madagascar November 2023
Agroclimatology
No reports available.
Markets & Trade
Price Bulletin Madagascar Price Bulletin Madagascar February 2024
Bulletin des prix Madagascar Bulletin des Prix Madagascar February 2024
Price Bulletin Madagascar Price Bulletin Madagascar January 2024
Alerts / Special Reports
Alert Strong El Niño will drive high needs across Southern Africa through early 2025 Southern Africa November 8, 2023
Food Security
Key Message Update Crop maturation phase arrives amidst below-average and erratic rainfall Madagascar January 2024
Food Security Outlook Update Scale-up of food aid expected to alleviate food insecurity during the lean season Madagascar December 2023
Key Message Update Humanitarian assistance resumes but is insufficient to avert Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in the Grand South and Grand Southeast Madagascar November 2023
Agroclimatology
No reports available.
Markets & Trade
Price Bulletin Madagascar Price Bulletin Madagascar February 2024
Bulletin des prix Madagascar Bulletin des Prix Madagascar February 2024
Price Bulletin Madagascar Price Bulletin Madagascar January 2024
Alerts / Special Reports
Alert Strong El Niño will drive high needs across Southern Africa through early 2025 Southern Africa November 8, 2023
Food Security Classification Data View all Madagascar classification data
Madagascar Acute Food Insecurity Classification (January 2024 - May 2024)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (January 2024) and medium term (February 2024 - May 2024) periods.

Madagascar Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile January 2024 (.zip) (ZIP) Madagascar Acute Food Insecurity Classification January 2024 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: January 2024 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: February 2024 - May 2024 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: January 2024 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: February 2024 - May 2024 (.kml) (KML)
Madagascar Acute Food Insecurity Classification (May 2023 - September 2023)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (May 2023) and medium term (June 2023 - September 2023) periods.

Madagascar Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile May 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) Madagascar Acute Food Insecurity Classification May 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: May 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: June 2023 - September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: May 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: June 2023 - September 2023 (.kml) (KML)
Madagascar Acute Food Insecurity Classification (March 2023 - September 2023)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (March 2023 - May 2023) and medium term (June 2023 - September 2023) periods.

Madagascar Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile March 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) Madagascar Acute Food Insecurity Classification March 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: March 2023 - May 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: June 2023 - September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: March 2023 - May 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: June 2023 - September 2023 (.kml) (KML)
Seasonal Calendar Seasonal Calendar
Description

The Seasonal Calendar shows the annual and cyclical patterns of key food and income sources in a country throughout the typical year.

Madagascar Seasonal Calendar
Remote Sensing Imagery Remote Sensing Imagery
Description

USGS-provided data and imagery supports FEWS NET's monitoring efforts of weather and climate throughout the world.

View all remote sensing imagery
Livelihood Zone Resources Livelihood Zone Resources
Madagascar Grand South Livelihood Baseline Profiles, November 2017 Madagascar Livelihood Zone Map and Descriptions, December 2013 Madagascar Livelihood Zone Map, March 2018
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