Above-average October to December short rains were received across most of Kenya. Localized, episodic flooding and landslides/mudslides were reported in parts of northwestern and northeastern pastoral areas and southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural areas. Although less extensive than previously expected, the Kenya Red Cross Society reported that the heavy rains resulted in approximately 70 deaths and displaced nearly 50,000 households. The rains also led to the destruction of crops in lakeshore (Mt. Elgon, Busia, Kisumu), central highland (Kirinyaga), northern rift (Trans Nzoia), coastal marginal (Taita Taveta), southeastern marginal (Kitui) and agropastoral (Narok and Tana River) areas, and livestock deaths in Turkana, Samburu, Marsabit, Mandera, Narok, Isiolo, and Laikipia Counties. Disaster preparedness measures were put in place by the national government, local governments, and partner organizations, which mitigated the impact of these events. These measures included advisories to flood-prone areas, digging of trenches, and advising farmers to plant and harvest early and plant short cycle crops that would be less affected by above-average rainfall.
In the northeastern and northwestern pastoral areas, the short rains have led to the seasonal recovery of rangeland and recharged key water sources to 60-100 percent, increasing livestock productivity and improving food security. The distance traveled to grazing and watering sources has reduced to less than 10 kilometers and nearly 90 percent of livestock have migrated back to wet-season grazing areas near homesteads. Livestock body conditions range from fair to good in most areas and are expected to improve further. However, localized areas in Isiolo, Wajir, and Garissa Counties have experienced rainfall deficits ranging between 25-80 percent of normal. As a result, these areas are reporting poor to fair rangeland and livestock body conditions. County-average retail maize prices in pastoral markets have remained stable between October and November, as imports keep markets well supplied. Maize prices in November were eight to 30 percent above the five-year averages in Wajir, Marsabit, Turkana, and Isiolo, near the five-year average in Mandera, and eight percent below the five-year average in Garissa. Goat prices seasonally increased approximately 10 percent from October to November in Garissa, Marsabit, and Mandera, and remained stable in Turkana and Wajir, due primarily to improved livestock body conditions. Increases in goat prices against stable cereal prices have ensured favorable livestock-to-cereal terms of trade, which increased nearly 11 percent between October and November. Some pastoral households have improved to None (IPC Phase 1), but many poor, pastoral households remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) given low livestock holdings from previous successive below-average seasons.
In the southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural areas, the above-average short rains led to an increase in area planted. Crops are at various stages of development: maize is currently at knee-high stage, most beans are flowering, and potatoes are at tuber formation stage. Weeding for early-planted crops is ongoing in various counties, except for in parts of Makueni, Kwale, and Meru North where replanting of some crops is ongoing after erratic rainfall destroyed earlier crops. The distance traveled to domestic and livestock water sources has reduced to less than 2.5 kilometers. Staple food prices remained stable or declined marginally between October and November. Casual agricultural labor, a primary source of income for most poor households, is available at above-average levels as a result of the increase in area under cultivation. The availability of short-cycle crops, which are currently being harvested, has further improved household food consumption. The majority of households are in None (IPC Phase 1).
