Regular rainfall in March and April supported mostly normal growth of wheat in Afghanistan and Tajikistan. In both countries, the wheat harvest is likely to be above average for the third year in a row. The above-average harvest should provide both food and income to households in wheat-growing areas, but it also provides agricultural labor opportunities.
While both Tajikistan and Afghanistan are likely to have somewhat below average demand for wheat over the coming year due to above-average domestic harvests, import supplies from other parts of Central Asia should remain normal. The Rabi winter wheat harvest in Pakistan is nearing completion and may set a record for wheat production. Wheat planting is nearing completion in Kazakhstan where there may be a slight reduction in area planted this year.
With demand for livestock for meat set to peak in June/July for Ramadan, agricultural labor opportunities being available through September in some areas, and seasonal labor migration underway, poor households are entering the seasonal peak of their income and food access. Most areas should be able to maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1).