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El Niño 2023-2024

El Niño 2023-2024

FEWS NET anticipates that the ongoing El Niño, in combination with elevated air temperatures due to climate change, is likely to affect food security in several regions through below- or above-normal seasonal rainfall. FEWS NET is on watch for drier- and hotter-than-normal conditions in Southern Africa, Central America, and northern South America, and for above-normal precipitation in the Horn of Africa and Central Asia during late 2023 and early 2024.

Timing of wet and dry conditions related to El Niño Timing of wet and dry conditions related to El Niño
Description
El Niño Precipitation Map
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El Niño
Description

This page houses FEWS NET’s latest agroclimatology forecasts and special reports related to current and projected impacts of El Niño.

El Niño events alter global atmospheric circulation, making certain regions around the world more likely to experience above-normal or below-normal seasonal precipitation or temperatures. An El Niño occurs when abnormal sea surface temperatures and air pressure patterns in the tropical Pacific Ocean reinforce each other to produce a sustained period with above-average temperatures in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and weaker or reversed trade winds. At the same time, the weaker winds and heat beneath the surface of the sea block the upward movement of cooler, nutrient-rich ocean waters. El Niño events typically last nine to twelve months, or as long as sea surface and subsurface temperatures stay warm enough to sustain these ocean-atmosphere interactions, resulting in abnormal weather patterns.

Signs of El Niño events are routinely monitored and predicted using observations and climate models. The ability to predict El Niño events improves after the northern hemisphere spring. El Niño events can begin as early as summer and typically reach peak strength during fall or winter in the northern hemisphere.

Although the amount of precipitation can vary from one El Niño to the next, consistent patterns across past events provide a baseline for predicting future impacts in remote areas. FEWS NET’s agroclimatic assumptions help to inform projections of future food security outcomes in the countries we monitor. These assumptions are based on historical El Niño impacts, the expected strength and duration of related weather events, and other regional factors.

Read the El Niño and Precipitation Fact Sheet
El Niño Briefings El Niño Briefings

 

West Africa El Niño Briefing

 

 

 

 

Latin America and the Caribbean Region El Niño Briefing

 

 

 

 

Sub-Saharan Africa El Niño Briefing

 

 

 

 

2023/24 Return of El Niño and Potential Impacts for East Africa

 

 

 

 

FEWS NET El Niño Briefing

 

 

 

 

El Niño: What It Is and Implications for Food Security

 

 

 
Alerts and Special Reports Alerts and Special Reports
Southern Africa Alert 11/8/23
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Alert: Strong El Niño will drive high needs across Southern Africa through early 2025
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Impacts of El Niño Brief: Mozambique
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Impacts of El Niño Brief: Mozambique
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El Nino Global Alert
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Alert: Strong El Niño event will contribute to high food assistance needs through 2024
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Impacts of El Niño Brief: Honduras
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Impacts of El Niño Brief: Honduras
Read the full report
Resources Resources
May 2024: Impacts of El Niño on Food Security in Southern Africa April 2024: Impacts of El Niño on Food Security in Southern Africa March 2024: Impacts of El Niño on Food Security Tracking the Impacts of the 2023-24 El Niño and Strong Indian Ocean Dipole Even… Interpreting Indicators Used to Track the Impacts of El Niño and the Indian Oce… Impacts of El Niño on Food Security: Selected Indicators for Tracking the Impac… El Niño and its Implications for Acute Food Insecurity in West Africa Special Report: El Niño and Positive Indian Ocean Dipole to have Significant Mu… El Niño and its Implications for Acute Food Insecurity in Latin America and the… El Niño and its Implications for Acute Food Insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa 2023/24 Return of El Niño and Potential Impacts for East Africa NOAA Climate Prediction Center Updates on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENS… El Niño: What It Is and Implications for Food Security El Niño and Its Implications for Acute Food Insecurity in Southern Africa GEOGLAM Special Report: El Niño 2023/2024 Anticipated Climate and Agricultural … NOAA: Experimental Probabilistic Monthly and Seasonal Precipitation Outlook by … NOAA: Model-Analogs (MA) and Linear Inverse Model (LIM) forecasts for Months 1-… NOAA: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Impacts of El Niño in FEWS NET Countries Impacts of El Niño in FEWS NET Countries
Key Message Update Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes ongoing in conflict zones during the lean season
Democratic Republic of Congo
April 2024
Actualización de mensajes clave Mejora en las condiciones de humedad para la producción de Primera por aumento en la lluvia
El Salvador, Honduras, y Nicaragua
Abril 2024
Key Message Update Government introduces a new local currency to help stabilize exchange rates and prices
Zimbabwe
April 2024
Mise à jour des messages clés Résultats de Crise (Phase 3 de l’IPC) en cours dans les zones de conflit en période de la petite soudure
République démocratique du Congo
Avril 2024
Key Message Update Prices of staple grains remain high as farmers prepare to plant for the primera agricultural cycle
Guatemala
April 2024
Actualización de mensajes clave Mientras que los precios de los granos básicos permanecen altos, los agricultores se preparan para el inicio de las siembras del ciclo de Primera
Guatemala
Abril 2024
Key Message Update Increased rainfall improves soil moisture conditions for primera production
El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua
April 2024
Actualización de mensajes clave Inicio prematuro de la temporada de escasez en áreas del Corredor Seco, Alta Verapaz y Occidental
Guatemala
Marzo 2024
Key Message Update Hot, dry conditions delay primera season planting
El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua
March 2024
Key Message Update Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes expected in deficit-producing areas in the post-harvest period
Zimbabwe
March 2024
Key Message Update Weather, conflict, and macroeconomic shocks sustain Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes
Southern Africa
March 2024
Key Message Update Hot and dry March reduces harvest prospects with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes expected through September
Lesotho
March 2024
Actualización de mensajes clave Las condiciones cálidas y secas causarán atraso en la siembra de Primera
El Salvador, Honduras, y Nicaragua
Marzo 2024
Key Message Update Acute food insecurity remains severe in northern and southern Ethiopia
Ethiopia
March 2024
Key Message Update Early start of the lean season in areas of the Dry Corridor, Alta Verapaz and west
Guatemala
March 2024
Perspectives sur la sécurité alimentaire Des récoltes inférieures à la moyenne devraient permettre un accès suffisant à la nourriture jusqu’en septembre 2024
Madagascar
Février - Septembre 2024
Remote Monitoring Report Transition to La Niña will bolster production in countries in the region
El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua
February 2024
Food Security Outlook Prolonged purchase of food at high prices, irregular rainfall, and high temperatures usher in the early onset of the lean season
Guatemala
February 2024
Informe de monitoreo remoto Transición hacia La Niña apoyará la producción en los países de la región
El Salvador, Honduras, y Nicaragua
Febrero 2024
Remote Monitoring Report Despite macroeconomic improvements, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will continue in 2024
Venezuela
February 2024
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