Despite improved supplies due to the October harvest, prices will remain above average

The PREGEC September 2022 meeting's mid-term assessment of the 2022/23 agropastoral season in August points to prospects for cereal production of between -2 and +7% compared with the average. Despite the good rainfall recorded up to September, and the good prospects up to early October, cereal harvests in 2022/23 are likely to be close to average, or even below average in some Sahelian countries (Burkina Faso, Niger) and in Nigeria. The combined effect of reduced access to agricultural inputs, notably fertilizer, reductions in planted area resulting from insecurity/armed conflict, more-than-normal pest attacks in some areas of Niger and Mali, and flood damage to crops in several areas of Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Mali and Chad will probably limit production.

Livelihoods continue to deteriorate in the Lake Chad Basin, northwest and north-central Nigeria, the Tibesti region of Chad, and the northwest and southwest regions of Cameroon, due to the persistent security crisis and the ensuing population displacements. The same applies to the Liptako-Gourma region, where the security and humanitarian situation continues to be a cause for concern given the continuing displacement of populations as well as isolated localities in Burkina Faso. Poor income opportunities and high food prices make it difficult for poor households to access food.

Cereal prices were generally stable or higher than in August in Sahelian countries at the height of the lean season. On the other hand, downward trends were observed in coastal countries, reflecting increased supplies from new harvests. Nevertheless, prices remained well above the five-year average in the region. In the Sahel, high price levels were due to below-average stocks, greater market dependence, restrictions on domestic flows, higher fuel prices and persistent insecurity. In coastal countries, prices were driven mainly by strong export demand, a sharp rise in transaction costs linked to high fuel prices, and currency depreciation. Given the low carryover stocks and limited crop performance in some parts of the region, the seasonal price declines expected from October onwards with the main harvests will be less pronounced, and prices will remain above average.

The majority of food-insecure areas under Stressed (IPC Phase 2) will see an improvement to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) from October onwards with the new harvests. In the regions of Diffa, southern Maradi in Niger and the Lac region in Chad affected by civil insecurity, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) will remain until January 2023 with food assistance. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, currently affecting the Yagha and Séno provinces in Burkina Faso, the north and west of the Tahoua and Tillabéri regions in Niger, the states of Borno, Yobé, Adamawa, Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina, Niger and Kaduna in Nigeria, the Ménaka area in Mali and the north and west of the North-West and South-West regions in Cameroon will persist until January 2023, and from November onwards will affect all the two regions of Cameroon mentioned above.

In several areas, including the provinces of Bam, Sanmatenga, Namentenga, Gnagna, Komondjari, Gourma, Yatenga, Lorum , Kossi and Sourou in Burkina Faso, the regions of Kanem, Bar el Gazel, Wadi Fira, the west of Hadjer Lamis and the east of Batha in Chad, the north and west of the Far North region in Cameroon, eastern Mopti region and southern Gao in Mali, and locally in the northern states of Nigeria, which are also affected by the Crisis (IPC Phase 3), the food situation will improve slightly from October onwards, due to new harvests, enabling households to move into Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In the provinces of Soum (Sahel region), Oudalan and the north of the North and Centre Nord regions in Burkina Faso, and in the north and west of Borno in Nigeria, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity outcomes due to armed conflict will persist until January 2023, although the severity of the situation will ease towards Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the west and part of the north of Borno.