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Conflict continues to escalate throughout most of the country, with continued Al Houthi advances and coalition airstrikes led by Saudi Arabia, which began on March 26th. The ongoing conflict is driving several factors leading to deteriorating food security outcomes, including increased food and fuel prices, disruptions to normal income sources including public sector salaries, remittances, social payments, and agricultural labor, and disruptions to normal imports of staple foods.
Both diesel and petrol are in short supply across the country, as domestic refineries are not operating and imports are disrupted. Although the official rate for both fuels remains unchanged at YER 150/liter, reports during the second half of April indicate that the cost to consumers of available fuel is much higher, ranging from YER 400/liter to as much as YER 2,500/liter. The shortages and high cost of fuel has broad implications, including upward pressure on food prices, decreased availability of water for both consumption and for agricultural use, and disruptions to electricity. Fuel shortages are also limiting the delivery of emergency humanitarian assistance, including food distributions.
Prices of staple foods have increased rapidly across the country, with limited availability in some markets. In mid-April, prices for wheat flour were up by nearly 60 percent in some markets as compared to early March. Rice prices also experienced significant rises in some markets, up to 35 percent above March prices.
Remittances from abroad are an important source of income for roughly 2 million households. The ongoing conflict, particularly in Aden, has prevented some remittance-dependent households from receiving transfers. Further disruptions to services used for remittance transfers could impact households in additional governorates.
Although changes in the intensity of the conflict would have implications for the severity of food insecurity, the continued impact of current shocks is likely to cause deteriorating outcomes throughout much of the country in the coming months. Most areas of the country are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), while Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely in the most affected areas if conflict continues to drive food prices upward and disrupt normal sources of income.
To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.