Monitor Sazonal

Dry conditions prevailed in most parts of Somalia

14 Decembrie 2015

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda Baseado

1: Minima
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Emergência
5: Fome
Concentração de pessoas deslocadas
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência humanitária em vigor ou programad
A maneira de classificação que utiliza FEWS NET é compatível com a CIF. A análise compatível com a CIF segue os protocolos fundamentais da CIF mas não necessariamente reflete o consenso dos parceirosnacionais com respeito a segurança alimentar.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda Baseado

1: Minima
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pior
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência
humanitária em vigor ou programad
A maneira de classificação que utiliza FEWS NET é compatível com a CIF. A análise compatível com a CIF segue os protocolos fundamentais da CIF mas não necessariamente reflete o consenso dos parceirosnacionais com respeito a segurança alimentar.
Para os países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza um contorno de cor no mapa CIF para representar a classificação mais alta da CIF nas áreas de preocupação.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda Baseado

Países com presença:
1: Minima
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Emergência
5: Fome
Concentração de pessoas deslocadas
Países sem presença:
1: Minima
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pior
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência
humanitária em vigor ou programad
Para os países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza um contorno de cor no mapa CIF para representar a classificação mais alta da CIF nas áreas de preocupação.
Parceiros: 
USGS

Summary

Rains continued to subside in most southern, northern, and central regions from December 1 to 10 (Figure 1). Lower and Middle Juba, however, received average rainfall amounts of 10 to 50 millimeters (mm), with typical spatial coverage. Localized showers were also received in parts of Gedo, Bay, and Nugaal Regions. The rainfall anomaly (RFE2) for December 1 to 10 was average in most northern and central regions, but below average (up to 25 mm) in parts of the South. Rainfall was 10 to 50 mm above the 2000-to-2010 mean in localized areas of Lower Juba Region (Figure 2). 

Situation

Rains continued to subside in most southern, northern, and central regions from December 1 to 10 (Figure 1). Lower and Middle Juba, however, received average rainfall amounts of 10 to 50 millimeters (mm), with typical spatial coverage. Localized showers were also received in parts of Gedo, Bay, and Nugaal Regions. The rainfall anomaly (RFE2) for December 1 to 10 was average in most northern and central regions, but below average (up to 25 mm) in parts of the South. Rainfall was 10 to 50 mm above the 2000-to-2010 mean in localized areas of Lower Juba Region (Figure 2).

In the Northwest, Guban Pastoral livelihood zone in Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed received localized, light to moderate rains between December 1 and 10. Togdheer, Sanaag, and Sool Regions remained dry. Below-average seasonal rainfall in Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone has resulted in poor pasture and water conditions and atypically high livestock migration.

In the Northeast, rains have subsided between December 1 and 10. Due to poor rainfall throughout the season in most parts of Bari, Nugaal, and North Mudug, rangeland conditions have further deteriorated and water and pasture access are well below average, negatively impacting livestock body conditions and production. The Northern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone in Bari, Nugaal, and Sanaag Regions has been the most affected.

In the central regions, no rainfall has been reported in any rural livelihood zones. However, due to average and above-average rains in October and November, pasture and water conditions remain good across the livelihood zones of the central regions.

In the South, rainfall performance varied across regions from December 1 to 10. Dry conditions have been reported in Hiiraan, Middle Shabelle, Bakool and most parts of Lower Shabelle. Light showers fell in most parts of Gedo and Bay Regions. Middle and Lower Juba Regions received the highest amounts of rainfall, with moderate distribution in most areas. However, the remaining areas of the South, including Lower Shabelle, Bakool, and Hiiraan Regions, received little or no rainfall. Due to substantial amounts of rainfall received in October and November, standing crops continue to develop well and rangeland resources are ample and accessible.

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly indicates that vegetation levels are average throughout most of the country and above the 2001-to-2010 mean in most southern and central regions. However, vegetation remains below the 2001-to-2010 mean in Awdal, Bari, and Sanaag Regions in the North, and localized areas in Lower Shabelle, Lower and Middle Juba, and Gedo Regions in the South. The seven-day rainfall forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) indicates likely rainfall amounts of 20-30 mm from December 14 to 20 in most southern and central regions and along the Indian Ocean coast. Most of the northern regions are likely to remain dry during the forecast period (Figure 4).

For more rain gauge data, please, contact so-hydro@faoswalim.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

About this Report

FEWS NET will publish a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current October to December Deyr rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Deyr season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through December 20, 2015 and is produced in collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), a number of other agencies, and several Somali non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

Acerca Deste Relatorio

O monitor sazonal é produzido para cada uma das quatro regiões que a FEWS NET abrange durante a estação de produção. Este relatório actualiza os totais de precipitação, o impacto sobre a produção e as previsões a curto prazo. Produzido pelo cientista regional da FEWS NET USGS e pelo Gestor Técnico Regional da FEWS NET, é elaborado a cada 20 dias durante a estação de produção. Mais informações sobre o nosso trabalho aqui.

About FEWS NET

A Rede de Sistemas de AlertaPrecoce de Fome é líder na provisão de alertas precoces e análises relativas à insegurança alimentar. Estabelecida em 1985 com o fim de auxiliar os responsáveis pela tomada de decisões a elaborar planos para crises humanitárias, a FEWS NET provê análises baseadas em evidências em cerca de 35 países. Entre os membros implementadores refere-se a NASA , NOAA, USDA e o USGS, assim como a Chemonics International Inc. e a Kimetrica. Leia mais sobre o nosso trabalho.

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