Key Message Update

Rainfall performance improves, but Emergency (IPC Phase 4) still expected in many pastoral areas

Maio 2019

Maio 2019

Junho - Setembro 2019

Fases de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda baseadas em IPC v3.0

1: Minima
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Emergência
5: Fome
Concentração de pessoas deslocadas
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência humanitária em vigor ou programad
A maneira de classificação que utiliza FEWS NET é compatível com a IPC. A análise compatível com a IPC segue os protocolos fundamentais da IPC mas não necessariamente reflete o consenso dos parceirosnacionais com respeito a segurança alimentar.

Fases de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda baseadas em IPC v3.0

1: Minima
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Emergência
5: Fome
Concentração de pessoas deslocadas
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência humanitária em vigor ou programad
A maneira de classificação que utiliza FEWS NET é compatível com a IPC. A análise compatível com a IPC segue os protocolos fundamentais da IPC mas não necessariamente reflete o consenso dos parceirosnacionais com respeito a segurança alimentar.

Fases de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda baseadas em IPC v3.0

1: Minima
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pior
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência
humanitária em vigor ou programad
A maneira de classificação que utiliza FEWS NET é compatível com a IPC. A análise compatível com a IPC segue os protocolos fundamentais da IPC mas não necessariamente reflete o consenso dos parceirosnacionais com respeito a segurança alimentar.
Para os países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza um contorno de cor no mapa IPC para representar a classificação mais alta da IPC nas áreas de preocupação.

Fases de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda baseadas em IPC v3.0

Países com presença:
1: Minima
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Emergência
5: Fome
Concentração de pessoas deslocadas
Países sem presença:
1: Minima
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pior
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência
humanitária em vigor ou programad
Para os países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza um contorno de cor no mapa IPC para representar a classificação mais alta da IPC nas áreas de preocupação.

As mensagens-chave

  • After the onset of the Gu 2019 rainfall season was delayed by 10 to 30 days across Somalia, rainfall performance improved in May but remained largely below average and characterized by erratic, poor distribution. Severe to exceptional drought conditions persist in parts of the Northeast, particularly in Bari. Although moderate to heavy rainfall has improved conditions in other parts of central and northeastern pastoral areas and elevated seasonal totals to above average in parts of the South – most notably in Hiiraan and across the cowpea belt – poor distribution is still likely to result in below-average crop and livestock production overall. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through at least September across the country.

  • In most pastoral areas, livestock body conditions and household access to water are beginning to improve due to progressive pasture and water regeneration. Although births in the Gu are low, medium livestock conception is ongoing, which is anticipated to lead to medium births and milk production during the October to December Deyr season. Nevertheless, due to the gradual pace of livestock recovery and the mid-June to September dry period, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in the pastoral livelihood zones of East Golis, Guban, Hawd, Northern Inland, and Addun through at least September. Exceptions include some parts of pastoral and agropastoral areas in southern Somalia where above-average May rainfall is improving livestock conditions and food security more rapidly, sustaining Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes.

  • Rainfall has supported cowpea crop development in central agropastoral areas. However, water resources remain below average in most southern agropastoral and riverine areas. This has led to competition over access to irrigated water, and total Gu production is most likely to be below average with localized instances of crop failure. Deficits will likely be most severe in Southern Agropastoral livelihood zone in Hiiraan and Gedo and in Southern Rainfed Agropastoral livelihood zone of Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle. In these areas, food security is expected to deteriorate until the start of the Gu harvest in late-July/August, and then resume as food stocks are quickly depleted. However, better-than-expected improvements in livestock body conditions are likely to prevent severe outcomes. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) is likely in many areas through late 2019.

  • In agropastoral areas of the Northwest, farmers suspended short-cycle maize planting due to below-average Gu rainfall. Land preparation and dry sowing of long-cycle sorghum is now in process in anticipation of an average Karan (June-September) rainfall season. Should the current forecast hold, normal seed germination and crop development would be likely. However, total Gu/Karan production is still expected to be below average due to early season losses. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected to persist in Northwestern Agropastoral and Togdheer Agropastoral livelihood zones, and some poor households are likely in Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

About FEWS NET

A Rede de Sistemas de AlertaPrecoce de Fome é líder na provisão de alertas precoces e análises relativas à insegurança alimentar. Estabelecida em 1985 com o fim de auxiliar os responsáveis pela tomada de decisões a elaborar planos para crises humanitárias, a FEWS NET provê análises baseadas em evidências em cerca de 35 países. Entre os membros implementadores refere-se a NASA , NOAA, USDA e o USGS, assim como a Chemonics International Inc. e a Kimetrica. Leia mais sobre o nosso trabalho.

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