Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Seasonal rainfall performance: Following a harsh January to March jilaal dry season, the onset of the April to June gu rainfall season performed poorly in many areas, resulting in difficult cropping conditions and deepening pasture and water deficits. Although the rains were timely in key agropastoral areas, including Bay and parts of Bakool, Gedo, Middle and Lower Juba, and Middle and Lower Shabelle regions, rainfall onset was late across the rest of the country. Based on satellite-derived data, cumulative rainfall through April 15^th ranged from 25 to 50 percent of the 1981-2018 average across northwestern Somalia and large parts of south-central Somalia (Figure 1). The rains were not fully established until the end of April, when moderate to heavy rain alleviated the severity of dryness, especially in the North (Figure 2). Despite the recent increase in rainfall amounts, the short-term forecast currently suggests it will be short lived and rainfall will begin to subside from mid-May onward.

Currently, water and pasture resources generally range from poor to below normal according to satellite-derived data and field reports. Deficits were most concerning in Awdal, Bari, Galgaduud, Gedo, Mudug, Sanaag, Sool, Togdheer, and Woqooyi Galbeed regions. Trucked-in water has served as the main water source since February in most northern pastoral livelihood zones and rain-deficit areas of southern and central Somalia. In March, the cost of a 200-liter drum of water ranged from SOS 240,000-320,000 across key reference markets, which is ten times the five-year average of SOS 24,000-32,000. However, the recent increase in rainfall amounts is likely to provide temporary relief in May, stimulating rangeland growth and relieving water stress and reliance on water trucking. Ground reports already indicate a slight improvement in water, pasture, and browse availability in Bay and Bakool and parts of Hiiraan, Middle and Lower Juba, and Middle and Lower Shabelle regions. 

Livestock production: Persistently dry conditions from December to late April led to below-normal livestock body conditions and an atypical increase in livestock deaths in northern and central Somalia. Livestock undertook long trekking distances to water points and migration in search of dry pasture, eroding their health. Despite medium birth rates among small ruminants, body conditions are particularly poor among lactating livestock and this has led to extremely low levels of milk production. Further, there are localized reports of livestock miscarriages in Northern Inland, Addun, and Hawd Pastoral livelihood zones in central Somalia. Additionally, there are reports that atypical, hunger-related livestock disease incidence in Mudug and Galgaduud has led to some livestock deaths and culling. In these areas, poor households’ herd sizes were already below baseline levels. As a result, poor households’ income from livestock and milk sales and consumption of milk and meat is atypically low to none. However, better-off households are feeding livestock maize grain and/or have the capacity to migrate their livestock by vehicle to distant areas where dry pasture is still available. 

Crop production: At this time of year, agricultural activities typically include harvesting of off-season deyr crops in riverine areas and the start of gu cultivation in riverine and agropastoral areas. According to the FSNAU jilaal assessment conducted in March, farmers harvested an estimated 13,000 MT of various crops (e.g., sesame, maize, and cowpeas) during the off-season between late February and early April. Off-season maize production is lower than previously projected but still 89 percent higher than the recent five-year average, which is mainly attributed to an increase in area planted in flood recession areas in the Juba regions. Maize production performed highest in the Juba regions, while sesame production performed highest in Middle Shabelle. However, moisture stress and high pest infestations reduced yields in Gedo, Lower and Middle Shabelle, and Middle Juba regions to lower levels than normal.

The delayed, below-average performance of the rains is detrimental for gu cropping conditions and net production prospects, given both the short growing period and the likelihood that mid-to-late season rainfall will also be below average. Cropping conditions are poorest in northwestern agropastoral areas, where the rains were not adequately established until the end of April. In some riverine and most southern agropastoral areas, land preparation and dry sowing are ongoing and irrigation is available in upstream riverine areas. As of late April, FAO SWALIM data show the Shabelle River was 50 percent below the long-term average while the Juba River ranged from below to slightly above average. River water levels are rising and permitting irrigation and planting activities in upstream catchment areas of the Shabelle, while activities are still suspended in downstream areas (especially in Lower Shabelle). Along the Juba River, farmers are able to irrigate citrus fruits and other cash crops, as well as plant fodder for in-migrated livestock. At the same time, crop fields and villages along the rivers remain susceptible to flood events due to the recent increase in rainfall, weak embankments, and lack of repairs of open breakages.

Given the above, agricultural labor demand is low in rain-deficit regions of the South. Daily labor wage rates in the Juba, Shabelle, and Hiiraan regions range between 39,000 and 59,000 SOS/day, which is 9-18 percent below March 2020. In comparison to the March five-year average, wages vary within 10 percent below to 10 percent above the average.

Desert locust: Desert locust damage to crops and pasture is somewhat lower than previously anticipated but has still played a role in below-normal pasture availability. According to FAO, the presence of desert locust swarms has declined due to control operations in the northwest of Somalia and due to poor rainfall, which has impeded maturation and breeding. However, increased rainfall in late April into early May poses a risk of maturation and breeding during the gu season. The areas that are most at risk include northwestern agropastoral areas and southern agricultural areas bordering Ethiopia and Kenya. However, the coastal Somali jet stream continues to mitigate the spread of locusts in Shabelle, Juba, and Bay regions.

Staple food and livestock prices: Local cereal prices remain high in most markets, attributed to below-average cereal harvests in the 2020 deyr season. Additionally, inflation of the SOS in Puntland also continues to induce atypical price increases in the Northeast. Although local cereal prices were either stable or only increased slightly from February to March, particularly in the main crop-producing regions, cereal prices were above March 2020 and the five-year average. In Baidoa, for example, the price of sorghum was stable compared to February as farmers sold old stocks in order to purchase inputs for ongoing gu cultivation. Meanwhile, given the lower availability of maize, the price of maize in Qoryoley rose by 5 percent. However, maize and sorghum prices are 13-38 percent higher than March 2020 and 22-24 percent above the five-year average across the country. The exception is Woqooyi Galbeed, where the white sorghum price is near the 2020 and five-year averages.

Favorable livestock prices continue to drive above-average terms of trade (i.e., the number of kg of sorghum, rice, and maize that can be purchased with the sale of a goat), but poor households are less likely to benefit due to prevailing low herd sizes and poor livestock body conditions. The long-term issue of low livestock supply in central and northern Somalia – exacerbated by poor body conditions – and increased domestic and export demand for livestock before and during Ramadan (April-May 2021) are sustaining stable to rising livestock prices (goats and sheep). Meanwhile, data from the Bossasso Port Authority show a total of 346,323 heads of livestock were exported from January to March, with exports in March comprising 41 percent of cumulative exports in 2021. So far, cumulative exports from Bossasso Port are similar to 2019 and 2020. As a result of these factors, goat prices in Galgaduud, for example, rose by 5 percent compared to March 2020 and the five-year average.