Key Message Update

The long rains harvest improves rural food security, but urban food insecurity persists

Setembro 2020

Setembro 2020

The high and medium potential zones are in Minimal (IPC Phase 1). Most of the pastoral and marginal agricultural areas are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Tana Riverine and Mandera Riverine Livelihood zones are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

Outubro 2020 - Janeiro 2021

The high and medium potential zones are in Minimal (IPC Phase 1). Most of the pastoral and marginal agricultural areas are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). The districts along the Mandera and Somalia border are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

Fases de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda baseadas em IPC v3.0

1: Minima
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Emergência
5: Fome
Concentração de pessoas deslocadas
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência humanitária em vigor ou programad
A maneira de classificação que utiliza FEWS NET é compatível com a IPC. A análise compatível com a IPC segue os protocolos fundamentais da IPC mas não necessariamente reflete o consenso dos parceirosnacionais com respeito a segurança alimentar.

Fases de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda baseadas em IPC v3.0

1: Minima
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Emergência
5: Fome
Concentração de pessoas deslocadas
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência humanitária em vigor ou programad
A maneira de classificação que utiliza FEWS NET é compatível com a IPC. A análise compatível com a IPC segue os protocolos fundamentais da IPC mas não necessariamente reflete o consenso dos parceirosnacionais com respeito a segurança alimentar.

Fases de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda baseadas em IPC v3.0

1: Minima
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pior
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência
humanitária em vigor ou programad
A maneira de classificação que utiliza FEWS NET é compatível com a IPC. A análise compatível com a IPC segue os protocolos fundamentais da IPC mas não necessariamente reflete o consenso dos parceirosnacionais com respeito a segurança alimentar.
Para os países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza um contorno de cor no mapa IPC para representar a classificação mais alta da IPC nas áreas de preocupação.

Fases de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda baseadas em IPC v3.0

Países com presença:
1: Minima
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Emergência
5: Fome
Concentração de pessoas deslocadas
Países sem presença:
1: Minima
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pior
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência
humanitária em vigor ou programad
Para os países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza um contorno de cor no mapa IPC para representar a classificação mais alta da IPC nas áreas de preocupação.

As mensagens-chave

  • Across the country, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes continue across most pastoral and marginal agricultural areas, with Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes in areas with high crop and livestock production. In the previously flooded riverine zones of Tana River and Mandera, and the informal settlements of major cities, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are present where below-average income-earning opportunities have limited household food access and driven households to increasingly apply consumption and livelihood coping strategies to meet minimal food needs.

  • According to international forecasts, La Niña conditions are favored through April 2021 in the northern hemisphere. The October-December 2020 short rains are most likely to be below average with above-average temperatures. The short rains are expected to briefly stabilize rangeland resources but begin deteriorating rapidly in January, driving worsening food security outcomes. However, localized areas of northwestern Kenya are likely to receive average rainfall. Although uncertainty exists with long-range forecasts, there is an elevated likelihood of below-average rainfall during the March-May 2021 season.

  • In August 2020, in the major urban informal settlements of Nairobi, Mombasa, and Kisumu, an urban food security assessment by WFP and IPC TWG reported 45-55 percent of households are experiencing moderate hunger per the Household Hunger Scale (HHS). About 57-65 percent of households reported engaging in livelihood coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes to obtain their minimum food needs. Acute food insecurity in the informal urban settlements is primarily driven by the loss of income and high food prices due to COVID-19 related impacts on income-earning opportunities and market supply.

  • Maize prices were 8-20 percent above average in Eldoret, Garissa, and Mandera due to low supplies in the markets due to continued slowdowns in the supply chain. However, prices ranged from within average to 13 percent below average across the rest of the monitored markets due to available supplies from the long rains harvests and neighboring source markets, including cross-border markets. Bean prices were within average in Nyeri, Kilifi, Taita Taveta due to available harvests and cross-border imports but remain 9-36 percent above average across most monitored markets and 80 percent above average in Eldoret due to limited supplies from below-average production.

  • In the marginal agricultural areas, the average to above-average long rains harvest is maintaining good food availability, along with income from crop sales and agricultural waged labor opportunities, driving short-term improvements to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through October. It is expected that households will begin facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in November as their household food stocks begin to dwindle typically, and households start relying on income from agricultural waged labor for market food purchases.

  • In the pastoral areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes persist along with seasonal declines in available rangeland resources. Return trekking distances from grazing areas to water sources are 13-42 percent below average, and livestock migration to dry-season grazing areas has stayed within counties except in Isiolo where there is outmigration to Laikipia. Milk production and consumption are 5-18 percent below average due to most livestock being in-gestation. However, the goat-to-maize terms of trade remain favorable, ranging from 10-24 percent above average across monitored markets, and within average in Wajir, facilitating average to above-average household food access.

About FEWS NET

A Rede de Sistemas de AlertaPrecoce de Fome é líder na provisão de alertas precoces e análises relativas à insegurança alimentar. Estabelecida em 1985 com o fim de auxiliar os responsáveis pela tomada de decisões a elaborar planos para crises humanitárias, a FEWS NET provê análises baseadas em evidências em cerca de 35 países. Entre os membros implementadores refere-se a NASA , NOAA, USDA e o USGS, assim como a Chemonics International Inc. e a Kimetrica. Leia mais sobre o nosso trabalho.

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