Famine Early Warning Systems Network

The Season A harvest is expected to be 10 to 15 percent below average nationally and 25 to 30 percent below average in some semi-arid livelihood zones in the north and east, where rainfall was particularly poor. As a result, poor households in the Eastern and Northern Lowlands, eastern Dry Plateaus, and Buragane livelihood zones are likely to exhaust their food stocks as early as March. The below-average Season A crop production is also contributing to higher food prices, and this, coupled with below-average income from limited labor opportunities, will drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in these livelihood zones around April and May, prior to the availability of Season B harvest in June.

These livelihood zones, along with the eastern Arid Plateaus, are expected to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes from June to September, when the Season B harvest improves household food availability and access through seasonally lower market prices. During this time, very poor and poor households will also benefit from labor income from land preparation, weeding, and harvesting, which will seasonally improve household purchasing power. Despite these improvements, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely as the earlier impact of the below-average Season A harvest and prolonged high food prices have lowered poor households’ capacity to meet their basic food and non-food needs.  

The delayed start of Season A has delayed the harvest season by around two months, creating an overlap where most farmland needed for Season B planting is still being used for Season A, and thereby reducing the amount of land available for planting Season B crops. In addition, the below-average Season A harvest means that households will have less access to seeds for Season B planting, given that around 30 percent of the seeds used for Season B are from Season A. Moreover, higher bean prices at the national level have reduced farmers’ financial resources to purchase seeds. Due to these combined effects, the planted area for Season B is expected to be around 20 percent lower than usual.

Maize and bean prices remain high in January 2023 at the national level, ranging from 60 to 170 percent above last year and 50 to 80 percent above the five-year average. Due to increased food prices, the cost of the standard food basket is 75 percent higher than last year, exacerbating the already lower food access for poor households in the Northern Lowlands, Buragane, and eastern lowland livelihood zones amid below-average Season A production.

As of mid-February, 56,000 refugees and asylum seekers in Burundi are receiving food assistance that equates to approximately 100 percent of their monthly basic food needs, with around 70 percent of the population receiving in-kind food and 30 percent receiving cash-based transfers (CBT). While refugees and asylum seekers receive monthly food assistance, returnees receive only a single, three-month distribution of food assistance. Around 15,000 returnees who arrived after the 2022 Season B harvest in June are likely Stressed (IPC Phase 2), having exhausted their three months of assistance, but facing high prices amid limited income-earning opportunities.