Below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures are most likely for the 2022-23 wet season
Correio eletrônico
ImprimirFases de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda baseadas em IPC v3.1
Fases de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda baseadas em IPC v3.1
humanitária em vigor ou programad
Fases de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda baseadas em IPC v3.1
humanitária em vigor ou programad
KEY MESSAGES
October 1 – October 20, 2022, CHIRPS precipitation percent of average
The North American Multi-Model Ensemble precipitation forecast for November 2022-January 2023 made in October
Afghanistan crop calendar
Kajaki Reservoir water level in meters as of September 25, 2022. Data points marked in red correspond to the satellite images in Figure 5
Satellite images of Kajaki Reservoir surface extents on dates in the month of May in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022, as marked in Figure 4. Drought conditions in 2021 and 2022 are clearly evident
- Higher elevations in Badakhshan, Takhar, and Ghor received normal precipitation while below-average precipitation was observed in the eastern and central provinces (Figure 1). Negligible precipitation was received in the areas under the dry mask.
- A La Niña Advisory has been issued by NOAA. La Nina is likely to persist into Northern Hemisphere Winter 2022- 2023 and will increase the likelihood of below-average precipitation in Afghanistan (Figure 2).
- Normally, winter wheat planting starts earliest in the northeastern and eastern parts of the country. It is supported by precipitation that begins in early October and progresses westward. (Figure 3). Due to lack of sufficient precipitation and below-average soil moisture until now, winter wheat planting activity is below-average in the above areas per key informants.
- Below-average precipitation throughout the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 wet seasons has severely depleted surface and ground water resources., The forecast of a prolonged dry spell may shorten the planting-window of winter wheat.
- Forecasts of below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures throughout the 2022-23 season may lead to below-normal snowpack development, which would reduce snow water volumes, runoff, and further reduce reservoir levels (Figures 4 and 5, Kajaki Reservoir).
- Rainfed wheat cultivation in the northern wheat belt is most likely to be below-average for a third consecutive season due to La Nina conditions. Pasture resources will most likely be adversely affected by the below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures conditions during spring.
Acerca Deste Relatorio
O monitor sazonal é produzido para cada uma das quatro regiões que a FEWS NET abrange durante a estação de produção. Este relatório actualiza os totais de precipitação, o impacto sobre a produção e as previsões a curto prazo. Produzido pelo cientista regional da FEWS NET USGS e pelo Gestor Técnico Regional da FEWS NET, é elaborado a cada 20 dias durante a estação de produção. Mais informações sobre o nosso trabalho aqui.
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A Rede de Sistemas de AlertaPrecoce de Fome é líder na provisão de alertas precoces e análises relativas à insegurança alimentar. Estabelecida em 1985 com o fim de auxiliar os responsáveis pela tomada de decisões a elaborar planos para crises humanitárias, a FEWS NET provê análises baseadas em evidências em cerca de 35 países. Entre os membros implementadores refere-se a NASA , NOAA, USDA e o USGS, assim como a Chemonics International Inc. e a Kimetrica. Leia mais sobre o nosso trabalho.
