Regional Supply and Market Outlook

This report summarizes the supply and market outlook for white maize, black and red dry beans, and milled rice in Central America during the 2022/23 marketing year (MY), spanning from August 2022 to July 2023. Central America refers to Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua for this report. Mexico and Costa Rica are included because of their regional supply and trade roles. 

Aggregate white maize and bean production for MY 2022/23 is expected to be near average from generally beneficial climatic conditions, incentive from favorable market prices, and government assistance programs. Localized losses in subsistence agriculture are anticipated due to higher production costs. However, a significant impact on regional grain production for these reasons is not foreseen. Slightly above-average rice production is likely driven by higher local rice harvest in Nicaragua.  

Below-average maize surpluses are expected, as increasing domestic consumption requirements outpace slower production growth. Bean production declines in surplus countries such as Honduras and Nicaragua due to above-average rainfall and soaring input prices are expected to cause a small bean deficit in the region. The regional rice deficit will be close to average.  

Imports from regional and adequately supplied international markets will fill domestic consumption gaps. However, global grain prices have been significantly affected by several factors such as the Ukraine war, rising production and shipping costs, and tighter supplies in the United States and the European Union.  

Fuel and transportation costs, tight carryover stock from previous cycles due to cumulative shocks, and uncertainty over 2022/23 production resulted in persistently above-average grain prices across the region in MY 2021/22. As of November 2022, maize, bean, and rice prices were well above average (Figures 4 and 5), and that trend is expected to remain through the end of the MY 2022/23.