Regional Supply and Market Outlook Update

Irregular rainfall in Nicaragua and Honduras led toproduction declines during the primera and postrera 2021 seasons. In Guatemala and El Salvador, overall agroclimatic conditions favored white maize and beans production resulting in above average harvests. In January 2022, rainfall distribution supported near to average apante harvest.

Updated white maize regional production is expected atabove average levels; however, aggregated beans harvestwill be close to average in MY 2021/22. Aggregatedregional white maize production will be above the previous year and five-year average levels, while beans and milledrice will remain stable compared to MY 2020/21.

Above average maize surpluses are expected in the region(Figure 6). Beans self suffiency will remain average.Regional rice deficit will remain stable and will be fulfilledwith regional and international imports. However, pricevolatility, tighter global cereal supply, and logisticalconstraints will put additional pressure on regional prices.

In February 2022, wholesale prices are significantly aboveaverage throughout the region (Figure 2) and expected toremain high due to rising fuel and transportation costs,inflationary trends (Figure 5), and lower bean supply inHonduras and Nicaragua.

International prices, inflation trends, and governmentpolicies will influence food prices in the upcoming months.Moreover, rising input costs will affect the performance of2022 primera harvest and should be closely monitored toassess any negative impacts on crop areas and yields in theupcoming MY 2022/23.