Areas of Highest Concern

Motivo de preocupação

In Tigray, conflict has resulted in the displacement in nearly 2.0 million people and significantly disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods with very limited coping capacity for millions. 

Current Observations

Fighting has spilled over from Tigray into bordering areas of Amhara and Afar regions, resulting in the displacement of over 254,000 people and significant disruption to the ongoing meher agricultural season and other typical livelihood activities. 

Motivo de preocupação

Localized conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods, trade, and humanitarian access. The loss of livelihood assets from conflict and floods has reduced household food and income sources and eroded coping capacity. Poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

Conflict within the SPLM/A-IO is threatening lives and livelihoods in the Upper Nile, northern Jonglei, and parts of Western Equatoria. Nationally, over 184,800 people have been affected by seasonal floods as of August 31st.

Motivo de preocupação

Protracted conflict has severely disrupted livelihoods and reduced income-earning. Food prices remain elevated and food access is inadequate for many households. Currently, over 17 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance.

Current Observations

The exchange rate in IRG-controlled areas surpassed 1000 YER/USD in July. Depreciation of the currency and consequent rising prices of food and non-food commodities are causing more middle-income households to struggle to meet their needs alongside poor households.

Motivo de preocupação

Conflict is at very high levels in 2021 across the northeast, northwest, and central states. This is causing the displacement of households and limiting access to livelihoods and in the northeast decreasing humanitarian access. Poor macroeconomic conditions are constraining poor households' purchasing power. 

Current Observations

In the Northeast, conflict continues; however, a slight decline has been observed between June and August due to the ongoing lean season and reports of some members of Boko Haram/Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) surrendering to Nigerian troops.

Other Areas of Concern

Motivo de preocupação

The 2021/22 rainy season forecast is being closely monitored given concerns about a possible late start, which would have negative effects on agricultural labor opportunities, production, and prices in 2022.

Current Observations

The cassava cropping season was severely impacted by the 2020/21 rainfall deficit. Dried cassava production will likely be 30 to 90 percent below the five-year average due to the two successive droughts in 2019/20 and 2020/21.

Motivo de preocupação

Below-average rainfall in the eastern Horn in late 2020 and early 2021 culminated in a multi-season drought, causing significant crop and livestock production losses. A long-term forecast of a third below-average season in late 2021 raises the likelihood of severe impacts on food availability and access.

Current Observations

Kenyan authorities have declared a drought alert in 12 counties in eastern and northern Kenya. Pasture and water shortages are also reported in parts of southern, central, and northeastern Somalia.

Motivo de preocupação

The deteriorating security situation is disrupting household access to livelihoods and markets. More than 1.8 million people are displaced throughout the region.

Current Observations

According to UNHCR, since January 2021, the number of Burkinabè refugees has nearly doubled. There are now 38,000 Burkinabè refugees and asylum seekers across the region.

Areas of Highest Concern

País ou região Motivo de preocupação Observações atuais
Ethiopia

In Tigray, conflict has resulted in the displacement in nearly 2.0 million people and significantly disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods with very limited coping capacity for millions. 

Fighting has spilled over from Tigray into bordering areas of Amhara and Afar regions, resulting in the displacement of over 254,000 people and significant disruption to the ongoing meher agricultural season and other typical livelihood activities. 

South Sudan

Localized conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods, trade, and humanitarian access. The loss of livelihood assets from conflict and floods has reduced household food and income sources and eroded coping capacity. Poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Conflict within the SPLM/A-IO is threatening lives and livelihoods in the Upper Nile, northern Jonglei, and parts of Western Equatoria. Nationally, over 184,800 people have been affected by seasonal floods as of August 31st.

Yemen

Protracted conflict has severely disrupted livelihoods and reduced income-earning. Food prices remain elevated and food access is inadequate for many households. Currently, over 17 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance.

The exchange rate in IRG-controlled areas surpassed 1000 YER/USD in July. Depreciation of the currency and consequent rising prices of food and non-food commodities are causing more middle-income households to struggle to meet their needs alongside poor households.

Nigeria

Conflict is at very high levels in 2021 across the northeast, northwest, and central states. This is causing the displacement of households and limiting access to livelihoods and in the northeast decreasing humanitarian access. Poor macroeconomic conditions are constraining poor households' purchasing power. 

In the Northeast, conflict continues; however, a slight decline has been observed between June and August due to the ongoing lean season and reports of some members of Boko Haram/Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) surrendering to Nigerian troops.

Other Areas of Concern

País ou região Motivo de preocupação Observações atuais
Southern Madagascar

The 2021/22 rainy season forecast is being closely monitored given concerns about a possible late start, which would have negative effects on agricultural labor opportunities, production, and prices in 2022.

The cassava cropping season was severely impacted by the 2020/21 rainfall deficit. Dried cassava production will likely be 30 to 90 percent below the five-year average due to the two successive droughts in 2019/20 and 2020/21.

Horn of Africa

Below-average rainfall in the eastern Horn in late 2020 and early 2021 culminated in a multi-season drought, causing significant crop and livestock production losses. A long-term forecast of a third below-average season in late 2021 raises the likelihood of severe impacts on food availability and access.

Kenyan authorities have declared a drought alert in 12 counties in eastern and northern Kenya. Pasture and water shortages are also reported in parts of southern, central, and northeastern Somalia.

Bordering areas of Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali

The deteriorating security situation is disrupting household access to livelihoods and markets. More than 1.8 million people are displaced throughout the region.

According to UNHCR, since January 2021, the number of Burkinabè refugees has nearly doubled. There are now 38,000 Burkinabè refugees and asylum seekers across the region.

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A Rede de Sistemas de AlertaPrecoce de Fome é líder na provisão de alertas precoces e análises relativas à insegurança alimentar. Estabelecida em 1985 com o fim de auxiliar os responsáveis pela tomada de decisões a elaborar planos para crises humanitárias, a FEWS NET provê análises baseadas em evidências em cerca de 35 países. Entre os membros implementadores refere-se a NASA , NOAA, USDA e o USGS, assim como a Chemonics International Inc. e a Kimetrica. Leia mais sobre o nosso trabalho.

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