The key drivers of acute food insecurity arising from the COVID-19 pandemic remain the interrelated factors of movement restrictions and reduced economic activity, which are together resulting in lost income at the household level. Most governments of the countries monitored by FEWS NET enacted measures to slow the spread of the virus in March and April, including movement restrictions and business closures (Figure 1), and began easing these restrictions from May through August (Figure 2). Several countries kept relatively stronger measures in place through July and are only recently easing internal movement restrictions, including Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Sudan, Uganda, DRC, and Nigeria. In Ethiopia, while the government has not officially lifted movement restrictions, available information suggests that the public is broadly not adhering to restrictions, and enforcement is limited. Despite the trend toward easing movement controls, measures remain relatively strict in Chad.
The situation remains volatile, though, with the potential for the reinstatement of movement restrictions, as occurred in Madagascar when a lockdown was reinstituted in Antananarivo in July following an increase in confirmed COVID-19 cases. In Zimbabwe, a spike in cases in July also led the government to reinstate restrictions that were eased in May, with these control measures significantly restricting informal business operations and casual labor activities just as these activities were starting to resume. Although not officially announced, the re-establishment of movement restrictions and business closures is possible in Uganda in the near-term, following a spike in cases and fatalities in Kampala in August.
While internal movement restrictions have gradually eased between May and August, most international borders remain closed to labor migration. Most countries in Africa continue to implement border controls to prohibit migratory casual labor, which is a key source of income for many poor households across the continent. Similarly, in Afghanistan, while there has been a recent surge in people crossing to and from Pakistan following the easing of restrictions at the Chaman border point, movement to Iran remains restricted and labor migration likely remains limited overall. Labor migration from Haiti to the Dominican Republic also remains prohibited.
As movement restrictions persist, poor households’ access to typical income-earning activities remain limited. This is coupled with the impacts of the broader contraction of local and global economic activities that has led to reduced demand for goods and services from which millions of poor households derive a livelihood. These include lower demand for transportation, custodial, and food services, among others. Available evidence also indicates that, as COVID-19 prevention measures have led to increased transportation costs, it has become more expensive for poor households to engage in casual labor.
While poor households’ food access continues to be adversely affected by reduced income, food availability and prices continue to follow seasonal trends across countries monitored by FEWS NET. Global cereal prices remain near average and global supply chains are operating at near-normal levels, though disruptions at the local level are causing some price volatility. In East Africa, staple food price trends vary, and are average to above average in most markets, though food prices were already above average prior to the pandemic. In West Africa, staple food prices are below average across much of the Sahel but remain above average in conflict-affected and deficit areas. In Southern Africa, maize prices have seasonally declined or stabilized, but remain somewhat above average. In DRC, staple food prices doubled or tripled between March and May in many markets but have since significantly reduced. In Central America and Haiti, maize and bean prices are seasonally decreasing but remain slightly to moderately above average. Wheat prices are stable in Afghanistan, though remain above average. In Yemen, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, South Sudan, and Sudan, the impacts of COVID-19 are exacerbating ongoing macroeconomic issues that were already putting upward pressure on staple food prices. In countries and regions with high food prices, the combination of these prices and lower income is driving further declines in purchasing capacity among many poor households.
