Famine Early Warning Systems Network


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Central Asia

Afghanistan

Seasonal Monitor

Above-average water availability as main season harvest and second season planting approach

May 22, 2019
Key Messages: 

The 2018/19 wet season is concluding with cumulative rainfall 105 to 145 percent and higher of the long-term average across the country, mostly due to persistent weak El Niño conditions throughout the season.

The snowmelt water availability significantly decreased as is typical this time of year. The snowmelt is concluding across the basins except for a few in the northeast with permanent snowpack.

The seasonal abundance of rain and snow water has benefitted winter and spring wheat and is likely to facilitate second season cropping.

The most likely above-average temperatures in the coming months are likely to benefit grain formation/hardening and timely harvest of winter and spring wheat.

UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS

Mid-October to March is the winter wet season. March to May is the spring wet season. March to May is spring wheat planting. May to July is second season planting. September to December is winter wheat planting. January to May is the lean season. March to June is livestock migration to higher elevations. August to October is livestock migration to lower elevations. March to May is poppy harvest. May to September is wheat and barley harvest. September to mid-November is the second season harvest (rice and maize). February to May is the peak risk for spring flooding. Mid-September to December is households stock cereals for winter.
Source: 
FEWS NET
Seasonal cumulative precipitation from October 1, 2018 through May 15, 2019 is significantly above average across most of the country. Most areas received upwards of 150 percent of long-term normal with relatively small areas in the northeast and southwest experiencing average to slightly above average conditions.
Figure 1

October 1, 2018 - May 15, 2019 percent of normal (1981—2010) precipitation accumulation.

Source: 
USGS/UCSB
The snowpack in most areas of the country is depleted except in higher elevations.
Figure 2

Snow depth difference from average (2002-2016) in mm as of May 20.

Source: 
USGS/EROS
Figure 3 highlights the status of snow water volumes in Arghandab, Balkhab, Hari Rod and Kabul basins as of May 20. The snow melt across the country has largely finished.
Figure 3

Daily progression of snow water volume in (a) Arghandab, (b) Balkh, (c) Hari Rod, and (d) Kabul basins as of May 20.

Source: 
USGS/NASA
Cumulative precipitation through May 28 is likely to have moderate to heavy rain in eastern, northeastern, and central provinces. Through June 4 typical dry conditions are anticipated.
Figure 4

The Global Forecast System 7-day forecast of total precipitation in mm for the periods ending of May 28 (left panel) and June 4 (right panel).

Source: 
NOAA CPC
The North American Multi-Modal Ensemble 2-meter air temperature (⁰C) forecast for June – August with May initial conditions. There is a 40 to 60 percent chance of above average temperatures across northern Afghanistan.
Figure 5

The North American Multi-Modal Ensemble 2-meter air temperature (⁰C) forecast for June – August with May initial conditions.

Source: 
NOAA CPC

Precipitation anomalies:

Seasonal cumulative precipitation from October 1, 2018 through May 15, 2019 is significantly above average across most of the country. Most areas received upwards of 150 percent of long-term normal with relatively small areas in the northeast and southwest experiencing average to slightly above average conditions.  The excess rainfall will continue to provide abundant water during flowering and maturity of winter and spring wheat in May to June.

Snowpack and snow water storage:

Figure 2 indicates the completion of snowpack in most parts of the country except at higher elevations. The timing of the snowpack depletion is typical for this time of year in the region.

Figure 3 highlights the status of snow water volumes in Arghandab, Balkhab, Hari Rod and Kabul basins as of May 20. The snowmelt water availability is concluding on time across the basins except for a few in the northeast with permanent snowpack. The above-average snowmelt water availability during the 2018/19 season has been beneficial for replenishing reservoirs and providing above average water for irrigated wheat crops.

 

FORECASTS

Precipitation

Figure 4. Cumulative precipitation forecasts for 7-day periods ending May 28 and June 4 are shown in the left and right panels of Figure 4 respectively. Medium to heavy rain (30 to 80 mm) is forecast over the eastern, northeastern, and central provinces for the period ending May 28 (left panel). Thereafter typical, dry conditions are expected across the country except for light rains (15 to 30 mm) in northern Badakhshan and Nuristan provinces for the period ending June 4 (right panel).

Temperature:

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble forecast of 2-meter air temperature anomalies for June to August (with May initial conditions) indicates 40 to 60 percent probability of above-average temperatures in the northern region (Figure 5). The above-average temperatures are expected to provide necessary thermal energy for healthy grain filling and grain hardening of wheat in May to June. The above-average temperatures are also likely to facilitate timely harvest of wheat.

Downloadable Version: 
https://fews.net/sites/default/files/documents/reports/AFGHANISTAN_Seasonal_Monitor_May%2022%202019_Final_0.pdf
Region Contact Information: 

Email: afghanistan@fews.net


https://fews.net/central-asia/afghanistan/seasonal-monitor/may-22-2019

FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.