Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Key Messages

• The 2022-2023 cereal production forecast of 2,880,646 tons is 10 percent higher than last year and two percent higher than the five-year average (PREGEC). Markets are currently characterized by average supplies, except in flood-affected localities, and strong demand both internally from deficit areas and for export (especially from the Sudanese side). In addition, there has been a decline in the flow of processed products (pasta, wheat flour) and imported products (rice), following the security disturbances at the borders with Libya and following the war in Ukraine, thus putting additional pressure on demand for local cereals. As a result, an atypical upward trend in prices has been observed compared with the five-year average, on most cereal markets. For example, in mid-December millet prices rose in Abeche (31 percent), Biltine (71 percent), and Moundou (45 percent) as a result of strong demand coupled with high transportation costs.

• Due to the good levels of biomass and the availability of seasonal water bodies in the pastoral zone, pastoralists movement towards the southern transhumance zones has slowed down relatively compared to the trends of the last three years. This has limited competition between transhumant herders and sedentary pastoralists in the southern region, who have benefited from more crop residues this year. With abundant pasture improving the body condition of animals and an increase in livestock prices, the upward trend in livestock market prices is improving the terms of trade of pastoralist and agropastoralist households despite price increases in grain markets.

• In Lac Province, there is an oversupply of labor due to the persistent insecurity that causes regular influxes of displaced people. The presence of floodwaters in the tributaries of Lake Chad reduces the demand for labor. In the rice-growing basin (Mayo Kebbi Est and Tandjilé), the delayed recession of floodwaters is reducing the perimeters of berbere and rice nurseries, which are in decline in these areas. Faced with limited demand, daily wages paid to able-bodied workers are lower than in a normal year as a result of oversupply in most agricultural and agropastoral areas.

• In the western Sahel (Lac, BEG, Kanem), continued humanitarian assistance coupled with the influx of new crops and harvested products are supporting food consumption among displaced persons and host households that are under Stress! (IPC Phase 2!). Household food consumption in the Saharan and Sahelian provinces is affected by low income levels and high prices. This limits household access to markets, particularly in Chari Baguirmi and Mayo Kebbi East, which are under Stress (IPC Phase 2). In contrast, households in agropastoral areas are Minimally food insecure (IPC Phase 1) due to favorable livestock to cereal terms of trade for farmers.