Key Message Update

Cereal production is 6 percent below the five year average

November 2021

November 2021 - January 2022

February - May 2022

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • As a result of dry spells during the rainy season, national cereal production is down 6.3 percent from the five-year average. The largest deficits are recorded for maize (-12.8 percent) and millet / rice (-8.2 percent). Additionally, deficits are greater in the Sahel (-20.2 percent) than in the Sudanian zone (-4 percent). The drop in production is more pronounced in BEG, Kanem and Lac regions. Household cereal stocks are below normal in most areas of the country.

  • The economic crisis of 2014 - 2016 resulting in a drop in oil prices, the negative impacts of measures against COVID-19 and insecurity in Lac and along the Chad-Libyan borders, coupled with poor agricultural production, have disrupted most the livelihoods (employment opportunity, money transfers, sales of small ruminants and forest products, migration, etc.) of very poor and poor households. Households in Sahelian zones are more severely affected compared to the rest of the country due to the significantly below average production registered in the region.

  • Supply of staple foods is slightly below average in the Sahelian zone and is normal in the Sudanian zone. Despite the post-harvest period, demand for cereals is increasing atypically on the Sahelian and Saharan markets. An atypical increase in cereal flows to Borkou and Tibesti, replacing the decreases in cross-border flows of manufactured products (pasta, imported rice) is observed. Millet prices have increased significantly compared to the five-year average in Biltine (12 percent), Massakory (40 percent) and Moussoro (31 percent) due to atypically high demand.

  • In the Lac region, IDPs and host households face consumption deficits due to low production coupled with insecurity which disrupts the typical sources of food and household income. They are then unable to meet their food needs and face Crisis  (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. In the Sahel and in part of the Sudanian zone (Logone Occidental, Mayo Kebbi Ouest), households are unable to meet their non-food needs and are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Thanks to relatively average production, the other provinces of the country are facing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics