Seasonal Monitor

The season is progressing well with mostly average to above-average and well distributed rainfall

July 2021

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The Intertropical Front (ITF) continues its northward ascent and has almost reached its northernmost position in its central portion at the end of July.

  • Dryness experienced during the first half of July resulted in delayed planting over western Niger, Central Burkina Faso and northern Senegal and southern Mauritania.

  •  Rainfall observed over the last two weeks has brought needed relief to parts of the Sahelian zone that experienced dryness earlier in the season.

  • The minor dry season has been prevailing over the bi-modal zone of the region for about a month so far, as typical.

UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS

  • The Intertropical Front (ITF) has been progressing in its northward ascent.  It is now located between 18 and a little over 20 degrees of latitude north, as of the end of the third dekad of July.  It was north of its climatological position over most the region except over Mauritania (Figure 1).  The cumulative rainfall for the last 2-month period has been above average over most of the region.  However, few areas have recorded below average rainfall in both the Sudanian-Guinean and Sahelian zones (Figure 2).
  • In the Guinean-Sudanian zone, beside the bimodal zone where the minor dry season has been prevailing for about a month, areas with below average cumulative rainfall amounts include western Nigeria, southwestern Cameroon, an area extending from eastern Sierra Leone into northern Liberia and southeastern Guinea.  No negative impact of this dryness on crops is expected given that the seasonal rainfall amounts are almost always sufficient to meet crop requirements, particularly when they’re coupled with a nice time distribution observed during the current season.
  • In the Sahelian zone areas that experienced dryness, which included Far North Cameroon, northwestern Nigeria, Western Niger, Central Burkina Faso, and northern Senegal-southern Mauritania, have received relief beginning from mid-July.  Planting delays resulting from this dryness are very likely, however, they’re not expected to have a significant on planted area over most of the dryness affected area.

FORECASTS

  • According to the short and medium term forecasts from NOAA-CPC, mostly average to above average and well distributed rainfall is expected with no significant dry spell in the next two weeks.
  • The NOAA-CPC Northern American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast for the next three-month period (September-November) generally predict average to above average seasonal rainfall conditions over most of the Sahel.  However, based on the monthly seasonal forecast for the month of October the models lack of skills over most of the region but show moderate low to moderate chances for below average rainfall over most of Burkina Faso, parts of Benin, the western part of Guinea Bissau and southern Chad.  This October precipitation forecast seems to be consistent with the warmer than average Gulf of Guinea STT forecast with which could also mean an earlier than average retreat of the ITF.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics