Key Message Update

Poor households affected by conflict in the Far North are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the lean season.

July 2021

July - September 2021

October 2021 - January 2022

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The current agricultural season continues with harvests in the southern part of the country. Average cumulative rainfall since April has been favorable for agricultural production. New yields of staple foods such as potatoes, plantains, beans, and fresh corn started in July in the Northwest and Southwest. With these harvests, poor households can generally meet their food needs through October with their own production. However, ongoing conflicts have limited access to 30 to 60 percent of maize and rice production farmland. This situation has resulted in agricultural production that is below the five-year average. Despite improved incomes from farm labor and crop sales, staple food prices, which are slightly higher compared to the same period last year and 15 percent higher compared to pre-conflict years, continue to limit poor households' access to food.

  • In the Far-North, the start of the rainy season at the end of May marked the beginning of agricultural activities. However, planting activities were delayed by a continuous 15-day dry spell in July that reduced the total area planted. The forecast of above-average rainfall through September will likely result in localized flooding in Mayo Danay and Logone & Chari departments, with consequences for the livelihoods of poor households that depend on agriculture.

  • Poor households in the Far North, particularly in the conflict zones of Mayo Sava, Mayo Tsanaga, and Logone & Chari, are currently facing food consumption deficits due to the depletion of food reserves because of below-average localized off-season production in early 2021. This situation is further exacerbated by the ongoing lean season where staple food prices are currently 12-40 percent higher compared to the same period last year, thus reducing the purchasing power of poor market-dependent households. To meet their food needs, poor households buy cheaper and less preferred foods, reduce the number of meals per day and adults' consumption to feed children. The main harvest is expected to improve food consumption and agricultural incomes in September, especially for poor households, through January 2022. However, insurgent activities associated with abductions and looting in Mayo SAVA, Mayo Tsanaga, and Logone & Chari will continue to disrupt the livelihood activities of poor households in these localities.

  • Food security conditions in most areas across the country are expected to remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through January 2022 due to anticipated average production for the main season. However, a fifth consecutive below-average production expected in the Northwest and Southwest regions; the current harvests will improve food security situations to Stress (IPC Phase 2) levels until October, when most poor households' food reserves will begin to run out, exposing them to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through January 2022. In the Far North region, where Boko Haram attacks are recurrent, particularly in Logone & Chari, Mayo Sava, and Maya Tsanaga, poor households will continue to face acute food insecurity Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through August due to the depletion of their food stocks and their dependence on market supplies during the current lean season. Similarly, increased pressure on natural resources and reduced livelihoods in Mbere and Kadey, which are hosting Central African refugees, will continue to expose poor households to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes until January 2022.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics