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Key Message Update

May - September 2026

Worsening economic constraints drive persistent Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes

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In Northeast Syria (NES), Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist as worsening economic constraints continue to erode household purchasing power and food access. Increasing fuel prices (up 17.33 percent in USD, with ongoing SYP depreciation amplifying the impact in local currency) have driven up costs and impacted key food systems, including bakeries and agricultural production. Above-average rainfall supported a strong rainfed barley performance, and a favorable government wheat procurement price supported above-average profits for rainfed farmers, while irrigated farmers also achieved positive, though relatively smaller, returns. However, as harvesting only began in late May in NES, impacts on household income and food access remain limited. Improved pasture and water availability reduced livestock feed costs, but small-scale livestock holders faced limited gains during Eid al-Adha, as weak purchasing power and reopened export channels redirected supply toward external markets and larger traders, pushing domestic prices beyond the reach of poorer households. At the same time, improved pasture conditions enabled herders to withhold stock, further increasing prices. However, despite favorable rainfall and anticipated above-average production, most households in NES are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through September, as macroeconomic deterioration, elevated input and food prices, and the delayed impact of the harvest continue to constrain purchasing power and limit improvements in food access.
In Northwest Syria (NWS), Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist, particularly in internally displaced person (IDP)-hosting areas. Reductions in humanitarian assistance — including a 50 percent cut to WFP food assistance — has significantly reduced food access for more than 2 million IDPs with limited alternative income sources. Fuel price increases and exchange rate depreciation are transmitted into higher market prices, further eroding household purchasing power, with seasonal pre-Eid al-Adha demand adding additional upward pressure. Localized flooding in northern Idlib damaged a combined 800 hectares of crops and fruit trees, while multiple unexploded ordnance incidents continue to constrain agricultural access and safe movement. Livelihoods remain heavily constrained: informal refinery closures in eastern Aleppo displaced hundreds of workers, and relocation requirements hinder transition to formal employment while land contamination further limits income alternatives. In Al‑Ghab Plain, widespread fish deaths caused severe losses, undermining recovery in fish farming and driving severe income losses for most fish farmers. Improved livestock conditions and a recovering poultry sector are increasing animal protein availability, but sustained high prices hamper access.
In southern Syria, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes persist, with rising pressures in Quneitra and As‑Suwayda. Israeli incursions in Quneitra and western Daraa — including temporary checkpoints, home searches, and civilian detentions — continue to disrupt agricultural and pasture access and civilian movement. Escalating violence in As‑Suwayda, including a Jordanian airstrike targeting weapons and drug smuggling storage facilities and clashes between internal security forces and the National Guard militia, have heightened insecurity and disrupted public services. Household purchasing power remains severely constrained; food prices in As-Suwayda are among the highest in the country, driven by fuel price pass-through into transport and commodity costs, declining real incomes, and delayed salary payments across most public sectors. Agricultural conditions in Daraa are relatively better, with average to above-average barley yields expected as the harvest begins and expanded potato production improving returns amid lower irrigation needs. Although pasture conditions have improved, demand for livestock ahead of Eid al‑Adha is expected to weaken due to high prices and limited purchasing power.
In urban areas of Damascus and Aleppo, households’ access to food and income is relatively better than the rural parts of the governorates. However, cumulative cost pressures — including fuel price increases, a 19 percent rise in liquid petroleum gas cylinder prices, and public transport fare increases of 15-20 percent — combined with continued SYP depreciation, have significantly eroded household purchasing power. Although a 50 percent public sector salary increase has offered some nominal relief, real purchasing power gains are expected to remain limited in the context of sustained inflationary pressures. The ongoing rehabilitation of Aleppo's Sheikh Najjar Industrial City — the largest industrial hub in Syria — is also gradually expanding stable employment opportunities and providing modest income support to urban households.
In the coastal governorates of Latakia and Tartus, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions persist due to weakened purchasing power, reflected in subdued pre‑Eid market activity. Households reliant on informal trade and services remain especially constrained amid limited formal employment. Agricultural production has begun to improve after above-average rainfall ahead of the June harvest, with diversified coastal systems — including orchards, crops, vegetables, greenhouses — supporting recovery; notably, potato output reached approximately 33,500 metric tons, boosting incomes and seasonal labor demand. While enforcement against illegal fishing continues in Tartus, fishing activity is expected to begin to increase beginning in June, improving seasonal earnings.
Above-average rainfall between January and May 2026 marked a sharp break from Syria’s worst drought conditions in nearly four decades, filling major water basins and dams to exceptional levels countrywide. However, by late May, exceptional water release from Turkey pushed Syria Euphrates dam reservoir storage to around 98.5 percent, forcing spillway gates open at maximum capacity for the first time since 1988. While river flow remained within its natural riverbed, flooding affected about 150 hectares of agricultural land in Ar-Raqqa, 1,000 hectares and 2,400 households in Deir ez-Zor. Damage was largely limited to agricultural land and households that had moved into riverbed areas during crisis and drought years as water levels receded.

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