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Decline in fuel prices unlikely to improve Crisis-level food insecurity in conflict-affected areas

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Yemen
  • September 2014
Decline in fuel prices unlikely to improve Crisis-level food insecurity in conflict-affected areas

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  • Key Messages
  • Projected outlook through December 2014
  • Key Messages
    • Conflict continued in the central and northern governorates of Yemen in August, displacing about 8,000 people in Al Jawf Governorate and preventing them from engaging in their normal livelihood activities. 

    • Household purchasing power remains abnormally low for staple foods. The cost of imported staples is atypically high since fuel prices are still 60 percent higher than their June 2014 levels, despite being reduced by 16.6 percent in August. A further 30 percent reduction is planned by the government by the end of September 2014.

    • The disruption of normal livelihood strategies due to conflict, coupled with atypically high fuel prices and associated high prices of staple foods, are contributing to continued Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity through December 2014. 

    ZONE

    CURRENT ANOMALIES

    PROJECTED ANOMALIES

    Displacement – Recent conflict-affected areas include governorates of Aljawf, Marib, Dhamar, and Sana’a.

    Displacements of thousands due to conflict.

     

    Conflicts are expected to persist, displacing additional households, reducing household income and purchasing power.


    Projected outlook through December 2014

    Conflicts continue to displace households in the central and northern governorates of Yemen. Recent violence displaced about 8,000 people, mainly women and children in Al Jawf, who moved to other localities within the same governorate. This recent displacement adds to the more than 330,000 displaced people currently residing in Sa’ada, Hajjah, Amran, Sana’a, and Al Jawf Governorates.

    The cereal harvest is expected to start in October and end in January, mainly for maize, wheat, and sorghum in the dominantly crop-producing areas of the west including Hajjah, Alhodiedah, Almahwit, and the western parts of Taiz Governorates. Given normal to above-normal rainfall performance during the 2014 main season (March to June), FAO has estimated cereal production to be average in 2014, at around 860,000 MT. This is about 5 percent higher than the previous five-year average.

    According to FAO, international prices of wheat and wheat flour, which are the major imported and consumed items in Yemen, declined for the third consecutive month in August amid favorable prospects of record global production. However, domestic prices in Yemen have continued to increase due to conflict and political instability. Although the government announced that fuel prices would be reduced by 30 percent in late August, they are still 60 percent higher than June 2014 prices. This is contributing to higher than normal milling and transportation costs and above-average prices for most staple food commodities, including bread, which is the primary staple food consumed. This will result in a deterioration of labor for staple food terms-of-trade, a main source of food for poor households.

    With persistent high food and fuel prices, internal conflict, and market disruptions, major parts of Yemen will continue to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity. This includes displaced households in conflict-affected areas, which are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through December 2014.

    Figures Seasonal calendar in a typical year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal calendar in a typical year

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 4

    Source:

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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