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Above-average 2013 cereal harvest forecast

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Yemen
  • September 2013
Above-average 2013 cereal harvest forecast

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  • Key Messages
  • Projected Outlook through December 2013
  • Key Messages
    • Despite below-average March-May rains in main cropping areas of the west, preliminary crop production estimates  suggest that the 2013 cereals harvest is forecast to be 13 percent higher than the five-year average.

    • OFDA reports that desert locusts continue to develop in Yemen. Breeding will likely continue in Al Jawf, Marib, Shabwah, Hadhramaut, and the Thamud plateau where favorable ecological conditions persist.

    • Medium-term forecasts for the period September to October (second-season rains) suggest average to below-average rainfall performance. 

    • In December 2012, more than 40 percent of poor households had poor food consumption in Sana’a and Al-Baidah, despite favorable labor-to-cereal terms of trade.

    ZONE

    CURRENT ANOMALIES

    PROJECTED ANOMALIES

    Central and eastern wadis

    • Control operations are limited by insecurity. A few small bands and swarms are likely to form, particularly in eastern Al Jawf, Marib, Shabwah, and Hadhramaut, including the Thamaud plateau.

    Southwest

    • Performance of second season rains is below average so far in parts of the southwest, mainly Taiz Governorate.
    • Below-average rainfall could result in below average second-season agricultural production.

    Projected Outlook through December 2013

    Although the first season (March to June) rains were below average in the western main crop producing parts of Yemen, preliminary crop forecasts by FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS) suggest that the 2013 harvest was about 935,000 tons, which is about three percent higher than last year’s crop and about 13 percent above the previous five-year average.

    Performance of the second-season rains (July to October) has been near average across the country, with relatively heavy rains over the western coastal strip. However, there are localized areas of rainfall deficits in cropping regions in the southwestern sector of the country, mainly Taiz Governorate, where the onset of rains was late, resulting in below average vegetation condition (Figure 2).

    Desert locusts continue to develop in Yemen. Regular survey and control activities have been constrained by insecurity and concern from beekeepers. Breeding will likely continue in Al Jawf, Marib, Shabwah, Hadhramaut, and the Thamud plateau where favorable ecological conditions persists, according to OFDA’s Emergency Trans boundary Outbreak Pest (ETOP) Situation Report for August. The locusts are not expected to spread to the western crop-producing parts of the country. However, they could cause localized damage to pasture, and in the wadi areas, some damage to locally important cash crops which could affect demand for unskilled labor.

    Figures Seasonal Calendar in a Typical Year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal Calendar in a Typical Year

    Source: FEWS NET

    Percent of 2001 to 2012 average eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), August 26 – September 5, 2013

    Figure 2

    Percent of 2001 to 2012 average eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), August 26 – September 5, 2013

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 3

    Source:

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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