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Delayed first season rains may result in reduced production and income

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Yemen
  • May 2014
Delayed first season rains may result in reduced production and income

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  • Key Messages
  • Projected outlook through September 2014
  • Key Messages
    • The first-season, March-to-June rains were below average in the months of March and April. Performance of the rains improved in the first dekad of May with above-average rainfall over the western, southern, and central parts of the country. However, vegetation conditions remain below average in these areas due to the deficits earlier in the season.
    • More moderate to very heavy rains are forecast for western and parts of the central highlands of Yemen until the end of May. Vegetation conditions are expected to improve following the forecast normal to above-normal rains.

     

    ZONE

    CURRENT ANOMALIES

    PROJECTED ANOMALIES

    Amran Governorate

    Displacement of about 15 percent of the population from Amran Governorate due to conflict.

     

    Predominantly crop-producing western parts of Yemen

    Vegetation conditions are below average.

    Rains are forecast to be average to above average. Vegetation conditions are expected to improve following these rains. Impact on crop development needs ground verification.

     


    Projected outlook through September 2014

    The dominant cropping areas in Yemen are the densely-populated highland areas in the western part of the country.  First-season rains in these areas, including parts of Hajja, Al Mahwit, Dhamar, Raymah, Ibb, Al Dahle, Taiz, and Lehaj governorates, were below average in the months of March and April. Performance of the rains improved in the first dekad of May (Figure 1). Despite the improvement in the rains, vegetation condition anomalies continue to depict drier-than-normal conditions over these areas (Figure 2). Moderate to very heavy rains are forecast for western and parts of central highlands of Yemen in the coming weeks (Figure 3). This is expected to improve vegetation conditions. However, ground information is needed to understand crop conditions such as planting, which typically takes place in April, would be delayed by about a month.

    To access food, poor households mainly rely on income from agriculture labor working on the farms of better-off households. The delay in the rains could therefore mean that there would be less wage labor available or reduced employment opportunities would be available by better-off households. The April to June period is the typical lean season in Yemen. Any reduction of poor households’ income will be an added stress on poor households’ food security. The labor to wheat flour terms-of-trade were within normal ranges in April in most markets of Yemen according to FEWS NET’s May 2014 Price Bulletin for Yemen. Poor households are expected to continue to face IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) levels of food insecurity at least until the end of the hunger season in June. Depending on the performance of the rains up to the end of June, food security of poor households could improve to IPC Phase 2 (Stressed) beginning in July.

    Figures Seasonal calendar in a typical year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal calendar in a typical year

    Source:

    Figure 1. Taiz Governorate, dekadal Rainfall Estimate, through 2nd dekad of May 2014.

    Figure 2

    Figure 1. Taiz Governorate, dekadal Rainfall Estimate, through 2nd dekad of May 2014.

    Source: USGS

    Figure 2. Vegetation Anomaly, eMODIS/NDVI 11-20 May, 2014

    Figure 3

    Figure 2. Vegetation Anomaly, eMODIS/NDVI 11-20 May, 2014

    Source: USGS

    Figure 3.  GFS Rainfall Forecast (mm), through May 29 (left) and June 6, 2014 (right).

    Figure 4

    Figure 3. GFS Rainfall Forecast (mm), through May 29 (left) and June 6, 2014 (right).

    Source: NOAA

    Figure 5

    Source:

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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