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Food insecurity to persist due to continued conflict

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Yemen
  • June 2014
Food insecurity to persist due to continued conflict

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  • Key Messages
  • Projected outlook through September 2014
  • Key Messages
    • Violence since early May 2014 in the densely populated areas of the North, South and central areas of Yemen displaced significant numbers of people. According to UN sources (UNDP, OCHA, and WFP), more than 300,000 people are currently displaced. UN-OCHA reported that 95 percent of IDPs are hosted in five governorates of North and central areas: Hajjah; Amran, Al Asimah, Hajjah, and Al Jawf.
    • Despite an average prospect of July – August harvest, acute food insecurity in Yemen continues to be at Crisis levels (IPC Phase 3) through September due to conflicts, reportedly severe fuel shortages, and reported increases in staple food price increases.
    • Crisis-level (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity is likely to persist due to continued displacement. Households in many rural areas have already begun adopting combination of irreversible negative coping strategies, such as selling their productive assets.

     

    ZONE

    CURRENT ANOMALIES

    PROJECTED ANOMALIES

    Northern governorates: Amran, Sa'ada and Hajja and in Abyan, Al-Dhale, Shabwah, AlBaydam and Marib governorates; Raida district, including the areas of Al-Hajz, Al-Makhad, Bait Al-Raboei, Dhaifan, Al-Janat

    Displacements of thousands due to conflict.

     

    Conflict are expected to persist

     


    Projected outlook through September 2014

    Despite a June 2014 FAO/GIEWS forecast for crop production near the five-year average and favorable cropping conditions forecast for the first/season harvest, income earned from farming activities will be insufficient to cover food and non-food needs for the poor and conflict-affected households.

    With reports of price increases, up to as much as 50-100 percent for some staple food commodities between May and June 2014, terms of trade will significantly go against labor of the poor as there are no increases in labor opportunities or increases in labor.  Hence, good harvest prospects will only provide limited and temporary respite for the poor as local own production contribution to overall consumption is minimal and prices are expected to rise.

    Given reports of persistence shortages in the supply of fuel, the likely increase in demand during the upcoming Ramadan season (late June to end of July), and escalating conflict, prices are anticipated to escalate in the coming months. This is anticipated to increase the costs of staple food commodities and basic public services (including transportation, water, and electricity), eroding the already reduced purchasing power among the poor households as they heavily rely on market purchases.

    With increasing cost of living and persistent conflict and political instability, the food security situation in conflict affected areas of Yemen are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

    Figures

    Figure 5

    Source:

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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