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Persistent conflict and recent withdrawal of fuel subsidies continue to exacerbate Crisis-level food insecurity crisis

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Yemen
  • August 2014
Persistent conflict and recent withdrawal of fuel subsidies continue to exacerbate Crisis-level food insecurity crisis

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  • Key Messages
  • Projected Outlook through December 2014
  • Key Messages
    • Persistent conflict continues to displace households in central areas of Yemen, disrupting livelihood strategies and reducing the ability for households to meet their basic food and non-food needs. In July, more than 10,000 people were displaced due to conflict. 

    •  The recent removal of fuel subsidies (effective July 30, 2014) coupled with ongoing conflicts are likely to contribute to significant price increases for basic commodities, including food and other essentials. This is likely to further exacerbate the acute crisis food security situation in Yemen through December 2014. 

    ZONE

    CURRENT ANOMALIES

    PROJECTED ANOMALIES

    Displacement - Areas affected with the recent conflict include governorates of Hadramout, Shabwah, Al Bayda, Abyan, Al Jawf, Sana’a, and Maarib.

    Displacements of thousands due to conflict.

    Conflicts are expected to persist, displacing additional households, reducing household income and purchasing power.


    Projected Outlook through December 2014

    The security situation has recently improved in Amran Governorate, with the return home of approximately 35,000 households who have been displaced since May. Despite these improvements, additional violence has displaced approximately 10,000 households in central and eastern Yemen, disrupting their livelihood strategies and reducing their ability to meet their basic food and non-food needs.

    Performance of the second-season rains, which started in July, has been normal to above normal in the dominantly crop-producing areas of the West, with reports of some flash floods in August. Forecasts of more moderate to heavy rainfall during the coming weeks are expected to improve agricultural activities for the second season, which favors the poor. Second-season rains are forecast to be normal to above normal along the west and central areas for the remainder of the season.  As a result, agricultural production for the second season will likely be more to average or above average.

    FAO’s Global Food Price Monitoring shows that international prices of wheat, and wheat flour continued to decrease markedly in July, reflecting the positive supply outlook for 2014/15, but domestic prices in Yemen have continued to increase due to conflict and the recent removal of fuel subsidies. Prices of petrol and diesel doubled at the end of July and beginning of August (UN-OCHA) resulting in significant increases for important food commodities. On the other hand, daily wage rates for unskilled workers, a key source of income for poor households, have been relatively stable recently. With cereal price increases, terms-of-trade is going against labor of the poor as there are only very limited and constrained livelihood and income opportunities in the market, especially in conflict-affected areas. The combination of poor purchasing power and continued conflict is likely to limit food access for displaced households, resulting in a continuation of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through December 2014 for households in conflict-affected areas. 

    Figures Seasonal calendar in a typical year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal calendar in a typical year

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 3

    Source:

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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