Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes persist in areas with flooding, pause in aid

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Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes are expected across Yemen through at least May 2025. Persistent macroeconomic challenges – which stem from the nearly 10-year conflict amid stalled peace negotiations – continue to limit income-earning opportunities and household financial access to food, resulting in food consumption gaps for millions of people. In areas controlled by the Internationally Recognized Government (IRG), the continuous depreciation of the local currency continues to contribute to rising food prices, which, along with irregular government salary payments, is placing further strain on household purchasing power. However, humanitarian assistance is likely preventing worse outcomes in several of these areas, resulting in Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes. Meanwhile, some governorates controlled by the Sana’a-based authorities (SBA) are expected to continue experiencing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes despite the maintenance of SBA-implemented price controls.
In the SBA-controlled areas facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, conflict has had long-term and significant impacts on financial activities and business operations, resulting in a scarcity of job opportunities that continue to severely limit access to food for many households. Although Targeted Emergency Food Assistance (TEFA) began in early November in some SBA-controlled areas, deliveries currently remain limited in its scope at 1.4 million beneficiaries in November, with plans to reach up to 2.6 million people as funding permits (23 percent and 43 percent, respectively, of the TEFA activity’s ultimate target of 6 million people). While food assistance is expected to partially mitigate food consumption deficits among recipient households, poor households who are not directly receiving assistance are still expected to experience large food consumption gaps in this economic context. Moreover, household food insecurity in SBA-areas has been exacerbated by recent devastating flooding, which damaged crops and other livelihood assets. The populations of highest concern include internally displaced persons (IDPs), flood-affected households, and poor households who rely on informal wage labor.
In the highlands, which are mostly located in SBA-controlled areas, the cereal harvest concluded in mid-November and has brought a relative degree of seasonal improvement in food availability and access. However, crop production only marginally contributes to food consumption for rural households, and this year’s harvest was well below average given crop losses and damage in areas severely impacted by flooding. Given both the small size of land owned by poor households and flood-related impacts on production, household food stocks are likely to deplete in less than two months, leaving many poor households highly market-dependent even after the harvest. In addition, the end of November marks the beginning of the dry season, which brings a seasonal decline in already limited agricultural labor opportunities.
The rising cost of living, along with the limited availability of public services and the inability of the IRG to pay public sector employees' salaries in October and November due to limited revenues, is increasing tensions in several IRG governorates. In late November, the governorates of Aden, Lahj, and Taiz witnessed protests related to the delays in salary payments, while strikes have been announced in Aden and Lahj among teachers, professors, and medical and health professionals. Furthermore, a recent circular issued by the IRG finance minister to other ministers, governors, and government agencies advises against entering into any new financial commitments without the ministry's approval. This has heightened concerns about the government's capacity to manage its finances and signals a depletion of available revenue. Already, many households are resorting to unsustainable coping strategies in an attempt to prevent or reduce food consumption gaps and meet their essential needs, such as selling their furniture and productive assets.
In November, the IRG’s Central Bank of Yemen in Aden (CBY-Aden) was unable to conduct a foreign currency auction due to insufficient revenues caused by the continued suspension of crude oil exports and a lack of external financial support from the Saudi-led Coalition. The last foreign currency auction held by CBY-Aden took place on October 28, where 30 million USD was offered. This trend indicates that CBY-Aden may be depleting its foreign currency reserves, particularly following the lack of any deposit from Saudi Arabia, forcing traders to use alternative and often unofficial channels to obtain foreign currency. This has resulted in the further depreciation of the Aden-based local currency throughout November. The average exchange rate for November in IRG areas was 2,054 YER/USD, representing a 35 percent decline in value compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, in areas controlled by the SBA, the local currency remained relatively stable compared to last November, with rates not exceeding 540 YER/USD.
Food and fuel imports through Red Sea ports – which are the primary ports of supply for SBA areas – are continuing at near-normal levels. Food is entering through the Al Hudaydah and As Salif ports, while fuel is being imported exclusively through the Ras Iss seaport, with no fuel entering through Al Hudaydah since recent Israeli attacks in October 2024. For the month of November, the Sana’a-based Customs Authority reported that a total of 400,226 metric tons (MT) of basic food commodities were imported through Al Hudaydah and As Salif ports and 270,269 MT of fuel came through Ras Iss port. The stable imports of food and fuel, along with strict price controls, have helped keep the price of the minimum survival food basket stable in SBA-controlled areas, permitting households to partially meet their food consumption needs amid the pause in humanitarian food assistance, although substantial gaps remain. In contrast, the price for the minimum survival food basket in IRG areas has seen monthly price increases for more than six consecutive months. According to the FAO Market Dashboard, the price of the minimum food basket showed a 5 percent increase compared to October and a 28 percent increase compared to November 2023.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Yemen Key Message Update November 2024: Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes persist in areas with flooding, pause in aid, 2024.

The (!) denotes areas where acute food insecurity outcomes would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without current or planned humanitarian food assistance.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.